By Girish Nikam
When the United Progressive Alliance was formed following the defeat of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the 2004 general elections, many did not give the newly cobbled up alliance much time for survival. The BJP leadership in particular in fact gave it only six months and later kept revising the fall-date, only to find to its chagrin that every such deadline was comfortably crossed by the UPA Government.

Now after having successfully completed its five years in office, and coming as it does after a full five term of the NDA Government, one positive for the polity has been established. That is the durability of the alliance governments. In fact the alliance mind-set has come to stay, and therefore even when UPA Government was under a serious threat, when the left parties pulled out its support, it managed to survive with the help of the Samajawadi party.

The coming elections therefore, like in 2004, will also be a game of alliances. The alliances which are formed pre-elections and with a common thread is bound to do better. Now with the hindsight of ten years of alliance-ruled governments behind us, the next elections are bound to be a fight between the two alliances, the UPA and the NDA.

The 13 party UPA which was formed has almost remained intact except for some minor parties going out of it. In Jammu and Kashmir, the PDP has been replaced by the National Conference, while in Tamil Nadu, despite the discordant noises, and AIADMK trying to woo the Congress, the UPA should be able to stick together.

All other allies of the Congress in the UPA are intact, be it the NCP in Maharashtra, RJD and LJP in Bihar, JMM in Jharkhand. If the Congress manages to sew up an alliance with the Samajawadi Party, which it should, considering that both parties need each other to take on the formidable BSP, the UPA should go into the polls, as a pretty formidable unit.

On the other hand, the BJP-led NDA has faced erosion in the last five years that it has been in the opposition. Three of its major allies, the TDP, AIADMK and Trinamool Congress have abandoned it, and there are no equally strong allies replacing it in the alliance. The other allies like the Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, BJD, JD(U), AGP among other minor parties will continue to be a part of it.

It would be interesting to have a look at the tally of the two alliances, as the present Lok Sabha is coming to the end of its term, which would also give an indication of things to come.

With 38 vacancies caused by deaths, desertions and dismissals, the Lok Sabha�s present strength stands at 506. Congress which is the lead party in the UPA has 150 members, up from 145 when the 2004 results were announced. On the other hand, the BJP has only 113 members. (See box below for strength of allies of Congress and BJP).

For both the Congress and the BJP, the main challenge in the forthcoming election is to increase their tally. For the BJP the enormous challenge is not only to retain what it already has, but to increase the tally by atleast another 30 to 40 seats, to be anywhere near a position to head a Government.

For the BJP, the major States where they have a chance of improving their tally substantially are limited, as they already have impressive tallies in Madhya Pradesh(19 out of 29 with five seats vacant), Chattisgarh(8 out of 11) Karnataka( 16 out of 28)and Rajasthan(19 out of 25).

In these States their challenge is to retain their strength which going by past trends they may find it difficult.

On the other hand, the challenge is to increase their tally in states like Gujarat (13 out of 26), Maharashtra (11 out of 24 they contested), and of course Uttar Pradesh (8 out of 80). In fact for any major revival to happen for the BJP, it is very essential that they win atleast 25 seats in UP, which at present seems improbable. Their chances of sweeping Gujarat and Maharashtra as well as Karnataka can only be hoped but the ground situation may not make it easy in any of these States.

In all other States be it Bihar, Orissa, Punjab or Assam, they are junior partners and any gains are bound to be marginal.

For the NDA to be in striking power of forming a Government, it is not only imperative that BJP touches atleast the 160 mark, but their allies like the BJD(10 seats), Shiv Sena(12) Akali Dal(8) and JD(U)(all members resigned now), the four major allies not only hold on to their earlier tallies but make substantial gains. And that is not possible for a party like BJD which has already peaked, and so has Akali Dal. It would also mean that NDA will have to fish for new allies even after the elections, to reach the magic figure of 272.

On the other hand, the Congress which has 150 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha, will be faced with challenge of holding on to their impressive performance in Andhra Pradesh (30 out of 42), Assam (9 out of 14), Gujarat (12 out of 25), Haryana (8 out of 9) and Maharashtra (13 out of 28 contested). If there is an erosion here which is expected in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Assam certainly, it can look optimistically in states like Kerala( nil out of 20), Madhya Pradesh(5 out of 29), Karnataka (9 out of 28), Rajasthan(4 out of 25), Punjab( 2 out of 13), Orissa(2 out of 21) and Chattisgarh(1 out of 9).

The Congress can also look forward to some minor gains in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh (if the SP alliance works).

On the other hand its major allies like DMK(16 seats), RJD(24), may find itself on slippery surface, though allies like NCP(11) and LJP(4) may just hold on or even improve their tallies. As far as the Samajawadi Party is concerned, if the alliance works with the Congress, it would be adding substantially to the UPA kitty even if it maintains its present 35 seats.

In what is essentially a game of alliances, there are parties outside these two alliances like the left front, whose tally is likely to see a reduction, while AIADMK is bound to gain as it had no seats in 2004. The performance of the BSP(16 now) is another factor which can make the next Lok Sabha more divided than the previous, if it wins as many as it hopes to.

The essentially bi-polar battle between the NDA and UPA however can end up with neither of them near the 272 mark, with parties outside the two alliances finally playing a major role in the formation of the next government. Not too much different from 2004, in fact.