By Girish Nikam

Five years ago around this time when the elections to the 14th Lok Sabha was
underway, and then ruling NDA was riding the �India Shining� bandwagon, Congress
which had been out of power for the previous eight years, was at its lowest
morale. Even its drum beaters in their war room at South Avenue were refraining
from predicting anything great for the party.

One such conversation with one of the whiz kids of the party, who continues
to be a key war-room player this time around also, turned out to be severely
embarrassing for him. When this columnist had suggested that Congress could win
145 seats, and it may just be in a position to form the Government with other
partners and support of left, and asked whether Sonia Gandhi would accept the
Prime Ministership, his reaction in whispers leaning towards me, symbolized the
pessimism of the party then. �NDA is going to win the elections, and Vajpayee is
going to be PM again�.

When it comes to optimism no one can beat the BJP, and when it comes to
underplaying its own ability, no one can beat the Congress. With fate of the 265
of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies already having been decided and sealed in
the EVMs, and still a lot of crucial States and seats to be decided the campaign
fury is at its peak. And what do we see? BJP making a lot of noise and even
talking of making it to the Government when none of the pollsters or reports
emanating from the ground does not suggest anything like that.

On the other Congress is playing coy, not even willing to assert itself. It
is left to Sharad Pawar finally to say that Congress will emerge as the single
largest party with around 150 seats! Did we hear any of the Congress leader
saying that? It is the same 2004 syndrome in evidence. Over-cautiousness
bordering on pessimism. Talk to the leaders they are worried—- some about the
wisdom of not having an alliance with the Samajawadi Party in UP and Lalu Yadav
and Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, some about the state of affairs in Madhya
Pradesh, and some about the uncertainty in Andhra.

The fact however is that in both Bihar and UP, whoever has visited these
States, are back with stories of a Congress revival. This columnist witnessed it
first hand in Bihar and many colleagues have done this in UP. Even in Andhra
Pradesh, Congress is not doing as badly as some of the Congressmen think,
according to observers.

Maybe this over-cautiousness is not a bad thing, if one takes the 2004
experience into account, when Congress actually won exactly 145 seats, and
emerged as the single largest party much against its own expectations. On the
other hand it also shows lack of confidence in its own abilities. The BJP
however has always known to be a party which can hype up its campaign several
notches higher, though it has its own pitfalls. It leads to complacency.

So what�s the scene like now, as we stand half-way, with over three weeks to
go for the final results to emerge? Is Congress ahead as some of the polls
suggest, and reports indicate or is the BJP actually pulling up and performing
better than it did in 2004?

If one looks at the 265 seats which has already been decided, it will give us
some idea of what is to expect. Out of these 265, Congress had won 75 seats and
its present allies, the NCP, JMM and MIM had won 16. While on the other hand,
the BJP had won 63 and its allies including the Shiv Sena, JD(U) and AGP had won
16. The left parties had won 24 and the parties in the third front including
Mayawati�s BSP had won 31 seats, while the fourth front consisting of Lalu
Yadav�s TJD, Mulayam Singh Yadav�s Samajawadi Party and Ram Vilas Paswan�s LJSP
had won 34, with remaining 6 seats being taken by others.

If we look at the States where these 265 seats are present, it will give us a
glimpse of what to expect.

The 75 seats that Congress had won, were mainly from Andhra(29), Assam(9),
Karnataka(8), Jharkhand( 6) Maharashtra(8), Bihar(3) and UP(3). The States where
elections have been completed include Kerala, Orissa, Andhra, Assam and
Jharkhand among the major States. It is now accepted that Congress will not be
able to repeat its performance in Andhra, Assam and maybe Jharkhand too.
However, it looks like increasing its tally marginally in Karnataka and
Maharashtra, and substantially both in Kerala and Orissa. So whatever losses it
may incur in the earlier States it will more than make up in the latter States,
and may even surprise itself in Bihar and UP, while in Madhya Pradesh too, it
may just manage to pick up more than the one seat it had among the 13 which went
to polls so far. So Congress in all likelihood may actually be ahead of its 2004
tally in these 265 seats.

BJP in the meanwhile, had won 63 seats out of these 265 seats, in 2004,
mainly from Madhya Pradesh(12), Karnataka(9), Orissa(9), Maharashtra(11),
Chattisgarh(10) and Uttar Pradesh(4). In none of these states, BJP is seen to be
holding on to its 2004 tally, and is likely to lose a few seats in all, except
maybe in UP. On the other hand it is likely to add to its tally of just one seat
in Jharkhand, to the 2 in Assam,  and maybe a couple of seats in Bihar to the
only one seat it had won of the 26 seats where elections have already been
completed. Overall, BJP seems to be running essentially to be the in the same
position, that it is to safeguard its 63 seats, or at the best adding a couple
to it.

The losers are obviously the left front, who will find it impossible to hold
on to the 24 seats, which includes 19 from Kerala. The third front consisting of
Telugu Desam, Janata Dal(S), BJD, on the other hand is likely to add to its
tally, marginally because of the Telugu Desam essentially. Mayawati�s BSP on the
other hand which had won 11 of the 33 seats decided in UP, may just be able to
hold on to that tally.

On the other hand, the fourth front consisting of RJD, SP and LJSP however
does not seem to be in a position to add to its 2004 tally of 34 seats in these
265 seats, as RJD which had won 15 of the 26 seats is seen to be slipping in
Bihar and likely to lose half of these seats. Even the Samajawadi Party may find
it difficult to hold on to 14 out of the 33 seats it had won in 2004.

It is interesting to note that though the fourth front is slipping and left
front also is going to suffer losses, the beneficiaries in either case is not
going to be the BJP in any significant way. On the other hand, the Congress is
certainly going to benefit from the left front�s losses and also marginally from
the fourth front�s. While JD (U) in Bihar is going to benefit substantially from
RJD�s losses.

So despite such a scenario, we see a high pitched campaign from the BJP and
the Congress essentially on the defensive. Does it make sense?