By Girish Nikam
Has the latest Lok Sabha elections thrown up a new trend in this country? Will we see voters getting less and less enthused with the call for voting for their biradari and jat? Will the voters look up to parties and candidates and combines who they perceive as being best to push forward development? These are some of the pleasantly surprising questions which have been thrown up following the astonishing results which once again found most sections of the media, the pollsters, as well as the politicians, being caught on the wrong foot.
Having traveled in two of the States which cannot be as starkly different from each other, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, during the marathon five phase poll campaigns, one could get some empirical evidence and answers to the above questions.
The general feeling throughout the campaign was that there was no issue in these elections which had a reasonance nation wide. It was once again thought, as has been the thinking for some time now, that general elections are an aggregate of the State issues. Though it may be true to some extent even in these elections, there however was a nation wide reasonance, which however the media and even surprisingly most of the political parties failed to pick up.
How else could one explain, almost similar reactions to issues of developmental programmes initiated by the Centre, like the NREG, Rs.71,000 crore loan waiver, better agricultural prices, infrastructure development under the Pradhan Mantri Gram sadak yojana, and the national highways programme?
It was quite uncanny that a Ramnarain, in faraway village near Bettiah in Bihar and Rangaswamy Naicker at the other end of the country, thousands of kms away in a Dindigul village, in Tamil Nadu echoed similar sentiments. The loan waiver is a great boon to all of us, and NREG is also helping lots of people, they said. Naicker even analysed how this loan waiver was helping even agricultural labourers like him, as farm owners are now able to get fresh loans and provide employment to the agricultural workers. People benefittting from these schemes will vote for DMK-Congress combine, Naicker had predicted, and lo and behold, Congress candidate, N.S.V.Chithan who was said to be hopelessly behind, has got elected.
However, since the media was too busy chasing Varun Gandhis and the Narendra Modis, and generally was cynical about Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi, these sentiments never got reflected.
What however is more significant is the evidently marginal role that caste played in these elections. It was again evident on the ground even in Bihar, how caste affiliations were breaking down. Though the Yadavs did indeed feel for their fellow-Yadav, Lalu Prasad, the passion was missing. The vikas purush image of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, though certainly exaggerated, however seemed to overshadow the empowerment of the Yadavs which Lalu had heralded. Now that they were empowered, it was time to look ahead to their development needs. The Muslims were more forthcoming than the Yadavs, when it came to these sentiments.
We have been grateful to Lalu Yadav for having been a great champion of our safety and security, but Nitish is however doing a lot of development work, which Bihar badly needs, a muslim shopkeeper near Lalus home town, in Gopalganj remarked.
While the two decades old Muslim-Yadav voter engineering by Lalu Yadav broke down on the face of perceived development efforts of Nitish in Bihar, in Tamil Nadu too the caste-based parties found itself in doldrums. For the last decade and half the Pattali Makkal Katchi(PMK), a vanniyar based political party, found itself routed in all the seven seats it contested. For the father and son duo of Dr.Ramdoss and Anbumani Ramadoss, it is stark reminder that their caste card may just have played out its time. Their somersaulting ways of moving from DMK to AIADMK alternately also helped in the voters rejecting them.
In fact, the caste card failed against the solid developments works and some astutely delivered pro-poor programmes of both the Centre and the State, like Re.1 rice, free TV sets, free gas cylinders introduced by the DMK Government. On the other hand, actor Vijayakants party DMDK, which has been increasingly gaining support from all sections of the population, was preferred to PMK. His appeal cuts across caste and also party affiliations, which saw him, gain over 10 percent votes, thereby helping the DMK combine to mop up unexpectedly higher number of seats.
Whether it was the massively progressed Tamil Nadu or Bihar, which lags behind in comparison by decades, one common element was people wanted more development and chose who promised it. In the bargain none of the parties which tried to raise emotional issues, were rewarded.
Interestingly, in Tamil Nadu which has grown enormously in comparison to Bihar on all development parameters, people were looking for more. Not just in terms of more industries, more agricultural facilities, but also more sops. So much so, the committed voters of the AIADMK, for instance refused to be moved by all the sops provided to them. If Jayalalithaa comes, we will get more, was the refrain among her supporters.
On the other hand, in Bihar people who are seeing some signs of development, were so overwhelmed by even that, they were quick in hailing Nitish as a vikas purush. Even a cursory glance at the vikas seen on the ground indicated in comparison to Tamil Nadu, that it was just a pittance. The best newly built roads in Bihar, would compare rather poorly with even the average roads in Tamil Nadu. The education system in Tamil Nadu, for instance is way ahead, while in Bihar just appointing thousands of teachers, many without any ability to teach, was seen as progress.
The health services in the rural areas in Bihar was hailed as having been improved, as the dispensaries are now open, and have even an ambulance. On the contrary the health services in Tamil Nadu is way ahead, in fact one of the best in the country, with high nutrition rates and a plethora of facilities.
However, despite this gnawing gap between the two States on all fronts, it was evident that people are looking positively at the changes taking place and are willing to bet on those who are seen as delivering on development, even at the cost of their caste leaders and parties.
There cannot be a more positive development on our electoral scene, which augurs well for a democracy and also shows that finally it is maturing.
(Courtesy–Outlook Hindi, see June issue for this article in hindi)
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May 27th, 2009
Girish Nikam
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Dear Girish.
This was a wonderful anaylisn. I really liked it.
S.K.S.
No one can understand the outcome of 15th general election as easily as you do so.
This comparison between starkly opposite Bihar and TN was, i reckon, already written in your mind when you finished your tours in these states. While I applaud the trend that development has a a nationwide resonance, I would still hesitate to brush aside the role caste, creed and money play in our elections. One may comment that all the people-friendly schemes which are funded by budget are in a way extension of TN/AP model as parties fall over each other in promising newer freebies–let thefiscal balance be damned. I have not come across any authoritative study which supports the argument that such ‘cash’ transfers do lead to overall well-being.
Another related topic could be how the last government carry out such massive programmes entailing millions of crores of Rupees outlays. How much is debt-driven and how much was made possible due to tax-realisation and related issues. And whether an encore is indeed possible this time? What about leakages in PDS, and other subsidies?