For a long time in Bihar, the Muslims who constitute 16.5 percent of the 9 crore population, have been lulled into smugness by the relatively peaceful communal atmosphere in the State. This has been largely due to the unabashed pro-Muslim policy adopted by RJD Chief Lalu Yadav in all these almost 20 years that he has dominated the political space in the State. Of course it is not only his unadulterated secularism which he professes and practices as well, that has been the reason behind his pro-Muslim policies. It made eminent political sense too, when he cobbled up the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combine, which kept him in power in the State for 15 years.

It was a win-win situation both for the Muslims and Lalu, especially after the growth of BJP in the State in the early nineties, when Congress had started its downward slide in the State. Both cohabited peacefully and election after election, majority of the Muslims blindly lined up before the booths and stamped on whichever symbol Lalu chose for his party. It has been a long honeymoon indeed.

But can Lalu Yadav hope to retain the same level of fidelity from the Muslim population towards him and his party and his ally, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti party, in the present elections? Around this question hangs the fate of Lalu Yadav and whether he would be able to play as major a role in the new Government at the Centre, as he did in these last five years.

Every Muslim one encountered from Siwan, Chapra, Bettiah to Muzzaffarpur, Madhubani and Darbhanga, as well as his native district of Gopalgunj, admit that Lalu Yadav has been responsible for their “sukhoon”(peace) in these last decades. “During the peak of the Ram janambhoomi agitation, when Babri Masjid fell, and when Bombay riots took place, the entire country was burning and our people were being butchered, Laluji did not allow even a single leaf to stir here in Bihar”, a grateful Khan Sahab, a hardware shop owner in Meerganj, near Lalu’s native village, Phulwaria recalls. Far away from Meerganj, on the outskirts of Darbhanga, an irrigation department peon, Mohammed Ismail, echoes Khan’s views. “We have really been blessed with such communal harmony, that we have had no problems with our Hindu brothers at all”.

However does it mean that they will continue to support Lalu Yadav? There is no doubt that the loyalty borne out of the sense of security they have felt is far from wearing off among most in the Muslim community. But unlike in the past, they have suddenly started realizing that there are alternatives. The decision of the Congress to go it alone in the State has made many Muslims to do a rethink. They feel that at the national level Congress has done a good job, and if it revives in the State, they can move towards Congress. However, many also feel that in this election, they may not support Congress. “In the Assembly elections next year, we will support them”, they say. Reason: they think that in this election is not strong enough to defeat other candidates in most of the constituencies in Bihar.

If Congress is tugging at Lalu’s vote base among Muslims, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is far ahead of the Congress. Muslims like most others in Bihar are highly impressed by his performance. “Who toh vikas purush hai hi”, is a common refrain one hears everywhere, and Muslims don’t feel differently. They see his focus on development, and some visible signs of improvement like better roads, functioning schools and hospitals, as being refreshingly different from the Lalu era. The reservation for backward Muslims initiated by Nitish and also funding madarasas has also added to the charisma of Nitish among the Muslims.His attempts to lure the backward muslims by sending two among them to Rajya Sabha is also a good ploy and has worked, as the Minority cell chief of the RJD, a backward muslim himself, has switched over to Janata Dal(U).

“Lalu Yadav indeed kept us safe and secure, but he did nothing for us in terms of development”, Hafiz Ansari, a Meerganj dweller and friend of Khan Sahab says. He points out how Muslim youths find it difficult to get any government job and therefore most of them, are forced to move to the Gulf countries looking for work. Education is also another area where Lalu Yadav, they say did nothing, whereas Nitish is giving it a lot of importance.

Of course, Nitish’s truck with the BJP is the hitch. “There is this feeling that if we vote for Nitish it is only to help Advani become Prime Minister, which we obviously will not like”, Khan sahab as well as Ismail in Darbhanga agree on. However, they also agree that they just may vote for Nitish’s Janata Dal(U) candidates yet, as “who knows what will happen after elections”.

It is this hope which prevails among all sections of Muslims across the State, which is proving to be a major problem for Lalu Yadav. Reports about a possible breaking of ties by Nitish with the BJP, in the post-poll scenario and moving towards the UPA, has fanned the movement towards JD(U). Asked about this possibility, Ansari’s eyes lights up. “If Janata Dal(U) and Congress come together, it will be a fantastic thing. Tab toh sone pe suhaga ho jayega”.

These words are certainly not music to Lalu’s ears, who has obviously realised these ideas are on the Muslims’ mind. Therefore he is sounding pretty desperate. His rather crude and provocative statement abut “running a road roller over Varun Gandhi’s chest” if he was the Home Minister, is an indication of Lalu’s desperation.

It is evident that Lalu is no more seen by the Muslims as their sole saviour. It is ironical that it is Lalu’s success in keeping the State communally peaceful that has resulted in the Muslims now looking beyond him. The bogey of BJP’s communalism does not sell here anymore, as the party has been weakened, and simply because Lalu has ensured peace. But Muslims are now demanding more than communal harmony. And many of them see Nitish as being the man who can provide them this. It is this feeling which is likely to damage Lalu’s vote base. The so far solid MY combination of Lalu Yadav indeed is under threat. When a Muslim now goes to the booth it may not only be the lantern that is on his mind, when he is poised to press the button on the EVMs.