Is it really the case? Have we as voters of this nation come around really to stop tolerating corruption and nepotism? Or is it just a hallucination or a convenient media-hyped hypothesis or pop-analysis in the absence of a full understanding of what these results mean?

It was interesting early on Friday morning, when the trends of the results had just started coming in, a senior BJP leader from Delhi, known for being a clean politician, expressed shock and dismay over the Tamil Nadu trends. It was showing that both the DMK and AIADMK coalitions were running neck to neck. The leader, a guest on one of the Hindi TV channels, said this was not a good sign for Indian democracy, as the people of Tamil Nadu don’t seem to have taken note of the massive corruption of the DMK leaders.

He left the studio, before trends changed and finally the landslide win for the Jayalalitha-led AIADMK became a reality. He surely must have later rejoiced and withdrawn his remarks or rather perception of the voters of Tamil Nadu.

इस लेख को हिंदी में पढ़ने के लिए यहां क्लिक करें (साभार- राजस्थान पत्रिका)

In Kerala too, as the pendulum swung through the day, between the Left Democratic Front(LDF) and United Democratic Front(UDF), the discussion focused on how the LDF Chief Minister V.S.Achuthanandan with his strong stand against corruption almost managed to do the unthinkable in Kerala politics— retain power. But alas, the LDF lost by a whisker, and out went all those claims of Keralites voting for someone who took a firm stand against corruption.

On the other hand, in West Bengal, where real history was made, there were no serious issues of corruption. It was the “goonda raj” as the heroine of the election, Mamta Banerjee repeatedly reminded us, that she was fighting against and wanted to put an end to. And she did. It’s another matter that she has herself been charged with unleashing the Maoists and her own violent cadre and creating violence, by the Communists. Obviously her charges appealed more to the people of Bengal, than the counter-charges of the Communists.

In Assam, though there were charges of corruption against the lesser known ministers in the Tarun Gogoi government, it was commonly agreed that Gogoi’s own clean reputation pulled off his third victory in succession.

In Pondicherry, the issues that dominated the elections were never known to those outside the tiny former French colony, and it did not matter to the nation, who won or who lost.

So where was corruption actually a major issue among these five States? Tamil Nadu, of course. Here nepotism and corruption were inter-twined, and going by the results, it is the only thing which seems to have mattered. Jayalalitha’s bitter campaign against her bitter rival, Karunanidhi and his family members looting the State and the nation too, and filling the family coffers, found huge reasonance among the people.

It is another matter that the extent, to which Amma’s campaign had made inroads into the minds of the Tamil Nadu voter, had completely missed all political observers and pollsters, including this columnist. The Tamil voters, who had been pampered like nowhere else with cheap rice and ration, TV sets, houses and what not, by the DMK government in the last five years, felt no sense of gratitude and mercilessly voted against the incumbent. Apparently they were enraged with the nepotism and corruption of the Karunanidhi family.

Now was this vote really against corruption or/and nepotism? Is Jayalalalitha really the anti-thesis to corruption and nepotism? Do people of Tamil Nadu really believe that they have voted out a corrupt government and brought in a squeaky clean one? Is the memory of the voters of the State so short? All these questions inevitably have to be raised, though it may not sound politically correct in an atmosphere where the nation is rejoicing a major blow against the corrupt.

In fact, Jayalalitha’s past performance and behavior while in power twice, during 1991-96 and 2001-2006, does not really evoke confidence, though one can always hope for a change in her third stint. One however has to remember that the cases against her, for owning disproportionate assets worth Rs.66 crore is still to be decided and she may still have to appear in courts.

Certainly the voters also may not have forgotten the role of the adopted family of Jayalalitha, her friend Shashikala’s nephews and nieces and other close relatives, who dominated the decision making during those two terms, and now are certainly waiting in the wings to move in and occupy the positions and places vacated by the Karunanidhi family.

So the final question. Is Jayalalitha really the anti-thesis to corruption and nepotism? Or is she the synthesis of both! Have people really voted against corruption, or just replaced one corrupt regime with another? And in a larger context, are we as a nation really prepared to say no to corruption decisively, especially when the choice is between the devil and the deep sea?

Just a thought to ponder upon before ending— B.S.Yeddyurappa-led BJP Government in neighbouring Karnataka, won all the three by-elections on the same day. What is the message from those emphatic victories? That we are ready to take on those who indulge in corruption and nepotism and defeat them?

Biman Bose, State Secretary, CPI(M), walking upto his office in the Alimuddin Street office.

Obviously this explanation does not explain the success fully, as the rivals always try to find simple explanations, avoiding any self -blame. Fact is none of the political parties through the last three decades and more have been able to match the organisational strength of the cadre-based party.

“Sanghatan inke bahut mazboot hai, upar se neeche tak”(Their organisation is very strong from bottom to top), points out Hasibul Ali Shaha, a native of Nandigram, who works in Calcutta now for a garment wholesaler.

It was this “strong organisation” and a disciplined one at that, which functioned not just during the elections, unlike most political party organisations in this country, which kept the red flag flying high, all these years.

It was this organisation, which yielded enormous influence over the Government machinery, consequently became the arbiter of Government contracts and jobs. It was also this organisation that successfully implemented the land reforms and brought in the agriculture revolution in the State. This politics of political patronage, in many places benign and welcomed by people, for years, kept the party apparatus well-oiled and flourishing from village level to the State headquarters.

The general feeling and to a great extent a reality too, was that if you are not aligned to the “party” chances of one landing up in Government jobs or getting contracts and enjoying the fruits of such patronage in various other areas, was remote. Of course, wherever the organisation had fair-minded people without vested interests, such patronage worked well, and even those who were not exactly party sympathisers also benefitted because of fair methods employed.

In the recent years however, the organisation started to rot, with vested interests developing, corruption sneaking in, and nepotism becoming the rule. “Sanghatan mein bhai batijawaad bahut ho gaya hai. Commiitte( district and village level) mein sirf unke bathije, unke bhai, unke saas, unke sasur ko jagah milta hai ab (Nepotism has grown in the Committees, only the leaders relatives find a place), Hasibul points out. The old dictum of the Communists, which abhorred nepotism, gave way some years back.

A senior comrade talking to this columnist at Alimuddin Street office of the State Committee, in Kolkata, admitted to it in so many words. “Last two years, we realized all these ills are afflicting our organisation. Corruption, though nothing comparable to what we hear now at the national level, has indeed crept in, and so has nepotism. But in the last two years we have tried very hard to combat and correct it”, the Comrade, a Central Committee member, who still believes that they will be able to surprise all doomsayers, remarked.

But obviously, the corrective measures initiated have not reached the people to convince them that things have changed. “Bahut suna hai hum bhi yeh sab, lekin hume kuch dikhayi nahin deta” (We have heard a lot about this, but we don’t see it here on the ground) , says Farad Ali Shaha and Saha Dev, in Nandigram. The perceptions are so strong that it is not easy to change them, so easily in such a short time.

It’s ironical, though not surprising, that the strong organisation which has been the greatest source of strength of the CPI(M) as well as envy of other political parties, has also become its greatest source of embarrassment and now the target of ire of the people.

The important question now, however is will all this change, if the promised “poribartan”(change) takes place, as it looks like? One has to understand that the politics of Bengal and the practitioners of it, belonging to even the non-left parties have more or less fashioned themselves on the CPI(M).

It is the success of the “strong Organisation” and the “politics of patronage” which they know is what has resulted in the enviously long rule of the CPI (M)-led Left front. And it is not a surprise that Mamata Banerjee, has tried to fashion her organisation also on the lines of the CPI(M). Though the Trinamul Congress cadre cannot be equated in terms of discipline and Simplicity of the Marxist cadre by and large, Mamata herself has made a fetish of her simple ways—her house a very modest one in a very modest locality, her dressing style or rather lack of it, her hawai chappals, insisting on living in a flat and not a bungalow in delhi, driving a modest car and so on.

It’s this simplicity, her rivals call it “drama”, which has endeared her to the common man, and is partly responsible for the “wave” in her favour now. However, what is evident talking to people expecting her to take over the Government, is that many of them are now eagerly waiting for their share in the spoils of power, which has eluded them for three and half decades.

It is this hunger, which is evident, that can prove to be the biggest Achilles heel for Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister. It can also potentially turn out to be one of the reasons for a very serious conflict, as the TMC cadres tries to vest the powers enjoyed by the entrenched left cadre for so long.

Another potential area of trouble is the promised industrialization. Mamata Banerjee in her zeal and following the success of her Singur and Nandigram agitations has been going around promising a different kind of strategy for industrialization. It has resulted in huge expectations, as lakhs of youth look forward to jobs in industries. And it is not going to be easy for her to find non-fertile land. And you can bet that the left parties are not going to make it any easy for her too.

Many in Singur have already discovered that the agitation and Tatas being forced to leave the place, has not benefitted anyone, and a section of those who supported Mamata, have turned against her now. So the burden of expectations she carries is so high, all this euphoria surrounding her now can dissipate sooner than one can imagine.

West Bengal is indeed on the threshold of a change, but will this change end the politics of patronage and the high-handedness of a cadre drunk with years of power? Not so sure at all.

Winning seven elections successively is the stuff dreams are made of for ordinary politicians and political parties. But for the Left Front in West Bengal it was a dream that they lived successfully for three and half decades even as election after election, the prophets of doom kept predicting, “this is it, this time they will lose”, only to eat humble pie(or is it dal-baat!) every time the results were out.

Unable to understand or explain the phenomena, the rival politicians and even a section of the media, attributed it to “scientific rigging” and any other reason which they could muster. What one wonders however, is if it was only “scientific rigging” which kept the left in power, why other political parties could not master that art, for all of three decades? Was it so “scientific”, that no one could decode the method? And more importantly, why did this “scientific rigging” fail in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

Anyway, after a brief two-day, about 500 kms whirlwind tour of the parts of the State, one can now say safely say, the prophets of the left front doom, may finally be able to say, “we told you so”.
Even believers, sometimes admit that their gods also fail at times (Satya Sai Baba is the most recent example, he could not survive till he was 96 as he had professed). And for the non-believers in West Bengal, who have kept faith in the Left Front, the time has come for them admit that their “gods” are failing.

In recent years, we have not heard much about a “wave” during elections, anywhere. But one gets the feeling now after having been in West Bengal, that if ever there was a “wave-like” atmosphere it is what one sees now in the State. If this is not a wave, then ok, I am not a journalist! Even hard-boiled comrades as well as the novice admit it, though they contend that this is a “jhoota wave”, created by a partisan media and a lying Mamata Banerjee. If that is true, one can only be shocked at the naiveté of the people of the State.

The fact is that there is hardly a handful one spoke to, in Kolkatta and 100 kms north and south of Kolkatta, who said that the change will not happen. The catch phrase, “poribartan” which Mamata Banerjee has successfully turned into a chant across the State, is on the lips of both those who are in favour of it and those also opposed to it, curiously.

There is no left front candidate or leader who does not use the phrase, in his speeches and interviews, though he or she is trying to rubbish it. But for the ordinary people, it is a chant, filled with hope, and one suspects, more so a wish coming out of sheer fatigue of having seen the same Government and faces for three and half decades. It sure has taken one hell of a long time for fatigue to set in, among these people! Any other political party in any other State or country would give their right hand, if people can tolerate them for so long.

But remarkably, some of the comrades sitting in the narrow lanes of Alimuddin Street (where the office of the CPI(M) State committee is located) in their narrow and rather Spartan offices, still are hoping that they will be able to pull it off in the last minute. Knowing their patience, perseverance and doggedness, one is not surprised by their optimism in the face of what is surely the most adverse situation they have faced in an election, in the last three and half decades in the State.

They have reason to feel so, going by their track record and the amount of work they have put in during this time. If one just ignored the political rhetoric of their rivals and look at the State, the agricultural revolution brought in and the admirable land reforms they ushered, is there for all to see. No other State is so rich and lustily green in these months of the year, in any other part of the country. A drive across the State and a view from the air is enough to convince how well the agriculture sector is doing. But what has now become the bane, is the fragmentation of land, and the consequent demand for jobs outside the sector.

In fact, the success of the left front in all these years has become their biggest problem, as it has become difficult to find land for industrialization, because of the high fertility of the land, and the people’s emotional attachment to it. Singur and Nandigram are evidences to it.

A visit to both these places has left one convinced that any future Government will also face similar problems, when it tries to get land for industries. It will require extra-ordinary strategies to convince the people to let go off their land, and it is here that the Left Front failed in convincing people.

It seems it is too late now for the lamenting leftists to reverse the situation, as both Singur and more so Nandigram, which was and continues to be seen as an attempt to grab fertile land, is etched in the memory of the people. It is these two issues which brought Mamata Banerjee bouncing back from virtual oblivion, and it is her successful exploitation of the issue, which now sees her on the doorsteps of a historic change.

Is it going to be a change for the better? Curiously very few people say it with conviction that it is going to be for the better. They are hoping that it will be, and worst comes to worse, they say, we will always have the option of adopting the Kerala model. But change is certainly in the air.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.Karunanidhi and Kerala Chief Minister V.S.Achuthanandan, almost of the same age, 87, will create a record if they both manage to come back to power. And it would be the biggest irony, if it happens, when the world talks about India’s youth and its demographic dividend!

Will they be able to pull off their last victory as their long and eventful careers reaches its end, is the question being asked, and the answer to which is a month away, as the voters in their respective States queue before the polling stations, as this column is being written.

A few months back, when preparations were on for the elections to these two states, political pundits were almost sure that this round of polls would bring about change in Governments in both States. The 2G scam and the ageing Karunanidhi as well as the family rule of the Chief Minister’s family, apart from anti-incumbency were seen as reasons enough to dislodge the DMK regime.

इस लेख को हिंदी में पढ़ने के लिए यहाँ क्लिक करें. (साभार- राजस्थान पत्रिका)

Similarly in Kerala, known for the turnstile electoral outcomes in the last three decades or more, the Left Democratic Front(LDF) was seen as staring at a sure defeat and the return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF), was seen as a certainty. The number of scams and controversies, the hopelessly divided CPI(M) leadership and the reluctance of the Marxists central leadership to give ticket for another term to VS, also contributed to the prophecies of doom, for the LDF.

However, as the polling comes to an end, and an analysis of the campaign and the strategies adopted by the parties in the two States and the issues which became prominent during this period, does not give even an experienced observer to be so sure anymore about the outcome in both States.

That the two octogenarians have managed to come back into the fray despite all odds, is what the story of this elections has been so far.

Oddly, one of the factors which is going in favour of Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu, seem to be his age factor! A strange kind of sympathy has been discerned among the sections of poor voters especially, for the aged patriarch on a wheel chair. “It’s his last foray into electoral politics, and how can we let him down”, kind of emotions seem to be swaying many.
A fair assessment of the ground realities in Tamil Nadu, indicates that both the DMK and AIADMK fronts are in a close fight, the like of which has probably never ever been witnessed in Tamil Nadu. DMK front of course, has the advantage of its famed well organized and controlled poll machinery, while the AIADMK has found itself severely challenged on this front. The internal bickerings within AIADMK as well as the ego clash between its chief, Jayalalitha and her main ally, DMDK’s Vijayakanth, leading to them not sharing a platform even once during the entire campaign has added to the problems.
On the other hand, Jayalalitha’s advantage is the huge discontent among the urban voters towards the DMK and its family rule, with the 2G scam, adding to their ire. The yearning for change is palpable in urban areas and Jayalalitha has cashed in on it. She has also gone out of her way to cultivate the Christians, Muslims and the Nadars as well as a section of SC voters, who have traditionally been anti-AIADMK.

DMK’s base, among the rural voters, who have been well taken care off in the last five years, by the freebies offered as well as any number of welfare schemes which have also been implemented efficiently is intact. There is however a lot of concern about the Congress’ performance, despite it having managed to extract maximum number of seats from the DMK. A section of pro-tamil groups, have systematically been campaigning against the Congress, though not against DMK, which may hurt the party’s chances in atleast two dozen constituencies. Moreover, the lack of cohesiveness displayed by the multiple groups within the party in the State, has not helped either. How far the DMK cadre will be able to fill these gaps, is the moot point.

For Jayalalitha, who had virtually neglected her party, after the 2006 defeat, for most part of last five years, it is a do or die battle. Not known to take defeats in her stride, she will find it very difficult to retain her hold over the party, if she does not make it back to power. Her best bet seem to be the people’s ire against the Karunanidhi’s family rule, which she has not lost an opportunity to drill it into the voters’ ears.

The Tamil Nadu outcome could therefore turn out to be a photo finish.

Surprisingly, in Kerala too, VS has managed to recover a great deal of ground, almost single-handedly, giving the UDF a run for its money. His image of that of a warrior against corruption (he even offered to enquire against his own son), and his pitched battles with people within his own front, seen as corrupt, has pitchforked him to the frontline. In fact, his image is so high among his own front, that all the LDF candidates used only his pictures in their posters, and completely ignored other Marxist leaders, including, VS’s arch rival, Pinarayi Vijayan.

The Congress-led UDF, which was almost basking in their anticipated return to power a few months back, has found itself in some sort of trouble, with some of its leaders being caught in old controversies, which is not helping them. The leadership crisis, of who would be the next Chief Minister of UDF, has also added to the voters’ skepticism.

VS, who at 87, is much more sprightly than many of the younger leaders on both sides, unlike Karunanidhi, is not depending on any sympathy factor, connected to his age. It is his charisma which is his best ally. And this has ensured that the Kerala outcome will be as interesting, if not more, than Tamil Nadu to watch. Will the two octogenarians create a new history?

Last week, both DMK and AIADMK competed with each other in announcing a range of amazing freebies to the voters, when they thought they had already been saturated by it. After free rice, free colour TV sets, free bus passes, etc.etc comes the new announcements of more. It was always alleged that DMK is the biggest culprit in using such tactics to garner votes and AIADMK chief, Jayalalitha was more sober in such matters. But this time she has also succumbed to it. She has now offered four gms. of gold for the Mangalsutra with a free gift throw in, if her Government comes to power. That’s not all— free laptops to all students of all colleges and even those in class Eleven, free mixers AND grinders and fans to women, Rs.2,500 per ton of sugarcane, increased cash assistance for women Self Help Groups(SHGs), pregnant women and children to stop them from dropping out of school, four sheep to each BPL family, 60,000 cows to 6,000 villagers, free buses to all above age of 58, which beats the DMK’s similar offer, but to only rural citizens, among others.
Karunanidhi’s DMK which has mastered the art of doling out of sops, finds itself stumped for once by this largesse being promised by its bitter rival. Though the party is also not far behind, offering free lap tops to all first year students of government and government-aided colleges, 35 kgs. Of rice to poor families per month, mixers or grinders to women, free TVs of course will continue apart from many other sops.

This almost vulgar practice of announcing freebies solely with the intention to garner votes however, is wrongly attributed to DMK and Karunanidhi. It was in fact, Jayalalitha’s mentor and the charismatic film legend, MG Ramachandran (MGR) who had started this practice way back in 1980. The circumstances under which he came up with the bright idea is worth recalling here.

इस लेख को हिंदी में पढ़ने के लिए यहाँ क्लिक करें

After having worsted the DMK in the 1977 Assembly elections and taking over as the Chief Minister, MGR by the end of 1979, found that his cosy relationship with the Indira Gandhi’s congress had come to a naught. The DMK, which was part of the Janata Party Government at the Centre in 1977, however distanced itself and moved closer to Indira Gandhi after the Janata Party broke up. So the two parties, Congress and DMK aligned for the 1980 Lok Sabha elections and swept the polls wining 37 out of the 39 seats, leaving MGR completely baffled. The advent of Indira Gandhi back as Prime Minister saw her dismissing many State Governments, which included the MGR’s government, thereby forcing a premature Assembly election in May 1980.

It was when faced with this sudden elections, after the humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, that MGR revived a scheme which had been introduced by veteran Congressman and Chief Minister K.Kamaraj, of providing nutritious meals to school children in the 1960s. Kamaraj’s intention was benign and solely aimed at keeping the poor children in school. However, by announcing a mid-day meal for school children as part of the election manifesto, MGR converted it into a vote-gaining tactic. He also promised special buses for women among others things, and when he came to power with a resounding victory, the politics of sops had taken a firm root.

The voters of Tamil Nadu, ever since have been the recipients of such largesse. And what is interesting is that if one travels in the rural areas of Tamil Nadu, as this writer did during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and checks out how these freebie schemes are implemented on the ground it comes as a pleasant surprise. Not only are these schemes implemented quiet efficiently, be it distribution of free rice and dal and salt and so on, or free TV sets, but they are also party-neutral.
There are hardly any complaints one comes across about the DMK scheme being deprived to an AIADMK or other rival party supporters. One also comes across stories of free TV sets being rejected as the family already has one or two TV sets! Many don’t even accept the rice as they feel it is of lower quality, and they are used to higher quality rice!

The flip side to these schemes, perfected by the DMK, is the huge benefits it gives to its party men and supporters. For instance, the free colour TV sets has meant huge increase in satellite connections and the benefit has directly gone to Sumangali Cables, the cable TV giant in Tamil Nadu, incidentally belonging to the Marans, Kalanidhi and Dayanidhi, grandnephews of Karunanidhi. Similarly TVs itself is sourced from agents who are supportive of the party. There is a party connect to most of these schemes, and at the end of the day, everybody is happy, the voters and the party men and supporters, who enjoy booming business.

Surely the free laptops also will mean some party supporter or party men, benefitting from the distribution.
So no one complains and what you have is the parties innovating every time there is an election and coming out with new sops which can not only garner votes, but also fill the coffers of the near and dear ones. A win-win situation indeed!

The voters of India did what was considered by many if not most, as the unthinkable. It voted back a Government at the Centre which had completed five full years and with an astonishing mandate for the leading party in the UPA coalition, Congress, for the first time in 25 years, which has seen six elections in this period.

Probably that�s where lies the key to understanding this mandate—- people�s wish to have a Government at the Centre which cannot be arm twisted, so that it can provide a stable, good government. However people have only partly fulfilled their wish, but Congress and Manmohan Singh would certainly do with it, for now.

As the cacophony rises inversely proportionate to the countdown for the results of the marathon five phase Lok Sabha poll, amidst wild speculations, one thing seems to be clear if you cut out all the fluff—– BJP�s Prime Ministerial aspirant, L.K.Advani�s chances of achieving his ambition is becoming more and more distant.

Of course many other trends is likely to emerge which may just disprove many of the long held notions and theories. We only have to wait for less than 24 hours for it.

By Girish Nikam

As the fifth and final phase of polling concludes today, the big question on the minds of everyone is what is going to be the result. The exit polls on various news channels will give some understanding of what we expect. Meanwhile, here is my own projection of the results, where the Congress plus its partners seem to be pretty much ahead of the NDA. Please have a look at the table below.

• Cong. + includes, NCP, DMK, VCK, MIM, NC, Trinamul Congress, JMM
• BJP��� + includes, JD(U), Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, AGP, Lok Dal
• Third Front includes BSP, Telugu Desam, TRS, JD(S), BJD, AIADMK, PMK, and MDMK
• Fourth Front includes SP, RJD, LJSP and Praja Rajyam

After having been banished by his father for years to Madurai, and neglected, in comparison to Stalin, his younger brother, M.K.Azhagiri, the elder son of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK Supremo, M.Karunanidhi is desperate not to let go off this opportunity which he has got.

However, what is worrying most people is the effect of such open and brazen use of money power to corrupt the voters, on future elections. �Once people get used to such things, they will demand it next time, like it has happened in Karnataka� a Senior Election Commission official, remarked. The only saving grace is that this disturbing trend in Tamil Nadu is still confined largely to Madurai, and a few other constituencies. But for how long is anybody�s guess.

Election Trail�Tamil Nadu

However, all this successful schemes, endorsed even by the bitterest opponents of DMK, however does not mean that Karunanidhi and the Congress can automatically expect huge electoral gains. In any north Indian state like say Bihar, it would have ensured it without question. But not in Tamil Nadu. For here, these are not some gifts showered on them by a benevolent Government. It is just what they are entitled to, despite how Rangaswamy feels. No wonder the DMK-Congress combine is still keeping their fingers crossed anxiously, and there is no sign that they are anywhere near repeating the clean sweep of 2004.