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Good Governance, clever strategy and some mavericks—Key to the 2009 Mandate

May 17th, 2009 |

By Girish Nikam


The voters of India did what was considered by many if not most, as the unthinkable. It voted back a Government at the Centre which had completed five full years and with an astonishing mandate for the leading party in the UPA coalition, Congress, for the first time in 25 years, which has seen six elections in this period.

This mandate is partly for the performance in these last five years of the Manmohan Singh Government and the leadership skill displayed by Sonia Gandhi, as well as a result of some clever electoral strategy, not to discount the role of the spoilers, all new political parties, in some key States.

It also put paid to the strategy of the BJP to convert this election into a virtual Presidential contest, by pitching L.K.Advani, whom they tried to sell as a “majboot” leader, who can give a “nirnayak” government, as against the “weakest” Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh. The voters rejected the consistent campaign of the BJP, and favoured Manmohan Singh to lead the country again for the next five years.

The simple, decent, but silently strong leadership of Manmohan Singh triumphed over the loud, vociferous, constantly bickering and accusing persona of Advani. Once and for all, Advani’s dream of becoming the Prime Minister, has been dashed to the ground in no less uncertain terms than one can imagine, forcing him to declare his virtual retirement from active politics.

Despite all the bitter campaign that the BJP launched to paint Manmohan Singh as a puppet of Sonia Gandhi and a man who takes his orders from 10, Janpath, the message failed to find reasonance.

On the other hand, the various mega schemes launched by the Manmohan Singh Government during the last five years, though some of them can also be credited to the left front, which supported the Government for most part of the five year term, was however seen as an achievement of the Congress-led UPA.

While Manmohan Singh’s image certainly did help in garnering those extra votes, which took the Congress from the expected (by this columnist at least) about 175 seats to past 200, other factors also did matter. The one was the master strategy of going it alone in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Though Bihar did not yield the kind of results one expected for the Congress, in Uttar Pradesh, Congress surpassed all expectations, and has not only won an impressive 22 seats, but also has set itself firmly on the path of revival.

This strategy attributed to the scion of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, who toiled for weeks and months in the State, hopping from one dalit house to another poor person’s hut, paid rich dividends, and has established him as the unquestioned heir apparent.

But Congress also should thank its partner in Tamil Nadu, DMK Chief M.Karunanidhi for evolving a strategy, which kept the new rising star of Tamil Nadu politics, Vijayakant and his party the DMDK, out of both the alliances in the State, which now seems to have paid rich dividends. Vijayakant’s candidates effectively garnered a crucial part of the AIADMK votes among the poor and dalits, even as he cornered almost 50 percent of the anti-establishment votes, thereby reducing the AIADMK combine, a strong one on paper, into a poor second.

Similarly in Andhra Pradesh, the other new party started by the screen phenomenon, Chiranjeevi, the Praja Rajyam, seems to have catapulted the Congress from the expected 20-24 seats to an astonishing 33 seats. Praja Rajyam, from early indications, cut into the votes of the TDP-TRS-Left front combine, more than it did of the Congress, thereby helping the Congress to cross the 30 seat mark out of the 42 seats.

Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Samithi (MNS) played a similar role to Praja Rajyam and DMDK, in Maharashtra, in all the 12 seats that it contested in Mumbai city and konkan region, which helped Congress-NCP, corner all the seats in Mumbai and 5 out of the remaining six seats in Konkan region.

If these spoilers did play a significant role in boosting the numbers of the Congress as well as their allies, DMK and NCP, there is no doubt that the people of the country in other States, especially Uttar Pradesh, gave a positive vote for the Congress. In UP though the leaning towards the Congress was visible in the ground during the campaign, the fear that this goodwill would go waste, as there was no organisation to reap it, has been proved unfounded. It not only harvested the goodwill, but the party has set itself up to become a serious contender for power in the next Assembly elections, three years down the line.

The mandate has also proved that a Government which is perceived to have honestly tried to reach out to the masses with programmes and policies, and shows sincerity in implementing it, will be appreciated by the people. This fact had been established in some of the States during the last few years, and it has been accepted at the Centre also now.

Though it is too early to conclude that the electorate are now looking upto national parties to provide a stable government at the centre, the fact that the total tally of the two national parties, Congress and BJP put together has touched 320, from the 283 in 2004, can be seen as an indication. However it is also ironical that it were the three fledgling regional parties, maybe four (if the Tamil nadu’s Kongu Munnetra Peravai is also considered), which was responsible for the Congress to have touched the 200 mark.

While this is certainly a cause for the most impressive victory of the Congress and its allies, the 2009 mandate is a cause for great concern for several parties. And no one more than the left parties, especially the CPI(M). As days pass and the results is micro-analysed, they would surely try to find some positives in even this most miserable performance for a very long time.

It however cannot discount the serious introspection which is necessary to look at the reasons for the debacle, especially in West Bengal, where the Trinamool Congress-Congress combine has virtually performed a miracle, by winning more seats than the left front.

It also brings to question the entire strategy as well as the policy adopted by the left front towards the UPA Government and the way it got itself isolated over the nuclear issue, thereby opening the doors for a Congress-Trinamool alliance. The pathetic result has also raised a serious question mark on CPI (M)’s General Secretary Prakash Karat, and has even resulted in an unprecedented demand for his resignation, from the expelled CPI(M) stalwart, Somnath Chatterjee. Though he would strictly be considered as an outsider, his demand is bound to find reasonance in a significant section of the party in West Bengal, if not elsewhere.

The mandate has also reduced many other potential and aspiring king makers or even kings into virtual non-entities—– AIADMK’s Jayalalithaa, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, JD(S)’s H.D.Deve Gowda, and of course, BSP’s Mayawati who wanted to be the queen herself, all from the third front. The pathetic performance of Lalu Yadav’s RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJSP, has also further strengthened the Congress’ importance in their scheme of things. It is gratifying to note that Lalu Yadav has gracefully accepted his mistake of distancing himself from the Congress. However, the mandate for JD (U) in Bihar is once again reasonates the new trend in Indian politics, that performance or even perception of delivering good governance, can win the appreciation of the people.

On the other hand, by winning such an overwhelming 200 seats, Congress has emerged so strongly, that even its partners will find it difficult to flex their muscles as they did in the previous Government.

Probably that’s where lies the key to understanding this mandate—- people’s wish to have a Government at the Centre which cannot be arm twisted, so that it can provide a stable, good government. However people have only partly fulfilled their wish, but Congress and Manmohan Singh would certainly do with it, for now.

10 comments
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  1. Kudos, Girish!

  2. congratulations Girish . You got closer than anyone else and your Piece on singh was masterly -

    -John McCarthy

  3. Kudos to your persistence and patience Girish to do this after a day of incessant studio-hopping !

    Jai Ho !

    Biraj

  4. Once again I watched as you chose the right path and followed it. Congrats on calling this election!

    Carole Gaddis

  5. hello Girish ,

    i have been following your mails almost regularly as i was also interested to know what was happening and was not been able to fathom

    currents in states where i could not go. you were almost on mark in most of the state though no one was aware even congress leaders

    with whom i also interacted during campaign were aware of support they got all over the country. thanks

    Prakash Joshi

  6. Dear Girish,

    I have been following with great interest your stories on “Mandate 2009”.
    Congratulations on your brilliant analysis, “Good Governance, clever strategy and some mavericks—Key to the 2009 Mandate”.

    I agree with every observation you have made.

    Best Wishes,

    D.R.Kaarthikeyan

  7. Once again your perception (most close) has proven right. UP, Tamilnadu and West Bengal’s voters give a new signal to the country.
    Congratulation for excellent analysis.

  8. the election results makes most of us sigh in relief, for delivering us from arm twisters, for giving stable government a chance, and for leaving the ‘left’ left alone. thanx for the analysis.

  9. Hi Girish

    I am amazed at your projections proving right. It has been immensely educative to go through your e-columns. Why so few mainline journals ever write like you?! Perhaps it is because you toil through field-visits with a very sharp congitive senses.

    I guess you can do a separate piece on how the anti-incumbency votes were garnered by Vijaykant, Chiranjeevi, MNS etc. by backing it up with statistical analysis and give it a historical perspective. Another theme could be how much populism cost the UPA. Or the significance of main schemes of UPA vis-a-vis the cash transfers during the elections by different parties….

    About TN, I was chatting with my batchmate today. He holds the view that people in TN are also fed up with DMK’s dynastic policies and Amma’s tantrums. If COngress were to go alone in TN, and to shake up the grassroot organisation for few years– like in UP– Congress has a chance of forming the government in TN as well.
    Regards
    Atul

  10. hi girish
    congratulations. You got closer than anyone else and your Piece on singh was masterly. thanks for sending me all storise.

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