The gaggle of exit polls has however confused people and only added to the cacophony, as TV channels have even started showing what they claim to be the exit polls conducted by various parties. Except BJP, which has recently brought into its fold, a professional pollster, no party however is openly claiming ownership to these so-called polls. BJP�s pollster, G.V.L.Narasimha Rao, who has obviously given the NDA a very significant lead over the UPA, is keeping the hopes and ambitions of his party and leader alive. If he is indeed proved right, he will have all the right to claim a seat in Rajya Sabha and even a berth in the cabinet. Incidentally, he like most pollsters had gone wrong in 2004.

But what every keen observer and analyst believes and accepts is that if it is any of the three combinations which would be closer to forming the Government, it is the UPA, plus the fourth front, which after all the campaign heat generated is now rapidly coming to the conclusion that it has no future except as being part of the UPA.

Meanwhile the �tamasha� on the TV channels in particular and media in general has been focusing entirely on who is going to be the next Prime Minister, overshadowing some key issues. And they may further get eclipsed as the results start coming out in the next 18 hours or so, as the game of sewing up alliances will dominate the media space, as well as the minds of all those interested in what is going on.

When the results start coming out, what are the factors, issues and pointers one needs to look for, to decipher how and why of the outcome. One of the most important issues is will this election reverse the trend of incumbent governments being voted out. Right from 1971, except for the tragic circumstances in which Congress was voted back with an overwhelming majority, post-Indira Gandhi assassination in 1984 no government has been able to come back to power. Of course, in 1999, Vajpayee managed to come back, under different circumstances, as he had just finished 13 months in government.

If UPA is returned to power, it will be the first government which has completed five years in office being returned, since 1984.Why is there such a possibility? What has changed in this country? If one looks at the trends in the past few years, people have been voting State Governments back to power in several states if they perceive that the Government has performed and they perceive further performance, if they are given another chance.

This has happened regardless of parties. BJP has benefited from this trend in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh recently and Congress in Delhi and BJD in Orissa, while the case of the Left front in West Bengal is historical.

So is UPA seen to have performed, and will it benefit from this state-level trend at the national level too?

If one goes by the voices one heard on the ground in various States that one traveled in the last month and a half, there was a significant reasonance to some of the mega programmes of the UPA Government. Be it the huge loan waiver scheme which has benefited lakhs of farmers across the country, the NREG programme which has provided employment again to millions of people, the rise in agricultural prices which has again put huge amount of money in the rural areas in many parts of the country, to name a few have had a silent impact. These are issues which have almost gone unnoticed and unmentioned in the mainstream media.

However these are issues which the ordinary farmer and agricultural labourer in the rural areas are talking about, though there are certainly complaints of poor delivery in some areas. But poor delivery has not taken away the merits of these programmes, so how it would pan out in favour of the UPA is going to be interesting to watch.

The most under-rated factor in this election has however been the Manmohan Singh factor, and so is the Sonia Gandhi factor. If Congress increases its tally, which it looks like doing, the Manmohan Singh factor is certain to have contributed to it. Whether it was in the backwaters of Bihar or in the badlands of Uttar Pradesh or in highly advanced Tamil Nadu, one leader whose name came to the mind of even very ordinary worker, farmer or wayside tea vendor was that of Manmohan Singh. If Congress manages to win these elections and forms the Government again, it is as much a victory of Manmohan Singh as that of Sonia Gandhi, whose name is on the lip of every minority community member.

As far as the BJP is concerned, though the campaign for �majboot neta, nirnayak Sarkar� certainly found reasonance among those who are already in favour of the saffron party, it was evident on the ground that it was not bringing in any significant new voters into the fold. It was evident that compared to Vajpayee, his long time friend, Advani did not create the same kind of excitement or loyalty among the voters. So if BJP is unable to form the Government, the fact that it chose a wrong person as its Prime Ministerial candidate will have to be looked into long and hard.

Another very interesting factor which remained virtually subterranean in the media discussions, but was heard on the ground off and on, was about the need for national parties ruling at the national level. It will be interesting to see what will be the final tally of both Congress and BJP put together, which are so far seen as the only two national parties. In 2004, the two parties together had managed to win 283 seats. During the last several months there have been speculations about these two parties winning less than the half of seats in Lok Sabha. However, if the voices heard on the ground about how there is a need for more stable government at the Centre headed by national parties, are any indication, we may be in for a surprise. And therefore it is worth watching the final tally of these two parties.