Is Lalu Yadav losing hold over Bihar which he had ruled and ridden rough shod for 15 years? Or will he bounce back as he has done several times in the past ? Will he able to disprove the prophets of his doom once more?
For Lalu Yadav this is almost a do or die battle and his anxiety is understandable for more reasons than one. Having abandoned Congress and joined hands with Ram Vilas Paswan and his Lok Jan Shakti Party, Lalu Yadav is left doing a tricky balancing act, wherein he pledges support to Congress at the Centre and his resolve to make Manmohan Singh the Prime Minister again. But on the other hand he is forced to take on Congress candidates, especially the likes of his estranged brother-in-law the notorious Sadhu Yadav, his former Minister Ramai Ram, among others. This rather tricky act of hunting with the hound and running with the hare is not going to be easy convincing the voters. Worse he is losing some of his vote base, the muslims specially, to the Congress.

In fact his ire against his brother-in-law Sadhu Yadav is especially sharp, and it is evident in his already much publicized visit to Bettiah, which is the heart of the West Champaran constituency. It is here that Sadhu, once the �hanuman� of Lalu, and now estranged is contesting as a Congress candidate against the renowned film maker and a son of the Champaran soil, Prakash Jha. Lalu�s allegory of Sadhu to the �Ramji ka Ghoda�( Lord Ram�s horse) has had a telling effect on the electorate.

The �Jija�saala battle� is interesting and in fact people are watching it closely. No one more closely than Sadhu Yadav�s father, Shivprasad Yadav. The 83 year old Shivprasad is caught between his love for his son and the powerful daughter-son-in-law duo of Rabri Devi and Lalu Yadav. Sitting outside his rather palatial house in Selar Kalan, just a couple of kms, from his son-in-law, Lalu�s village, Phulwaria, the old man is extremely wily and careful. �Sab kismet ki khel hai� (its all a game of fate), about the estrangement, even as he defends his son, saying, �after all both are part of UPA and will make Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister�.

Obviously Shivprasad and his son, Prabhunath Yadav, his only son, who is not into active politics, are unhappy with what has happened. The old man even stops Prabhunath from expressing his opinion. The underlying anxiety is palpable. Talk is abound that Lalu Yadav has finally managed to get out of the grip of his �saalas�(brothers-in-law) and it can only do good to him. �Laluji is a good man, it is these people from his wife�s family who have been responsible for his image taking a beating and all the things that went wrong during his rule in the State�, points out Hafiz Khan, from neighbouring Meerganj, who has seen Lalu as well as his in-laws� family from close quarters.

Khan�s friend, Ansari has an interesting take on it. �Why did Lalu not do as well as Chief Minister as he did as Railway Minister at the Centre�, he asks and answers it himself, �because here(in the State) it was these in-laws who held sway, whereas in Delhi( as Railway Minister) he had managed to keep them away.

So this distancing of his in-laws from his political activities, and keeping them away from his party, many feel, is going to benefit Lalu. It is evident that Lalu had got caught in the nepotism of the worst kind because of his wife, when one visits his own village Phulwaria. His family members, including his brother, a frail, unhealthy looking Gulab Yadav, his nephew, Ramanand and a completely emaciated cousin of his, talk about him having done nothing for them personally. The rather impressive houses they have built, by village standards, they claim was built with their own money, and Lalu contributed nothing to it. They are not happy with it, though they try to cover it up. �Don�t ask me anything more�, Gulab Yadav says before shutting up.

On the other hand the villagers are happy as he has brought about all round improvement to the village�s infrastructure, including schools, power stations, even a helipad, and clean water and roads. �Laluji would not do anything for us, but he did bring about changes in the village for the better�, his cousin complains. On the other hand

Villagers of Rabri Devi�s village Selar kalan, talk of how the Shivprasad Yadav family�s fortunes changed after Lalu became Chief Minister and grew by leaps and bounds during Rabri�s stint as Chief Minister. �Their arrogance and strong arm tactics grew in direct proportion to their wealth�, a local youth, a koeri whose disgust about the �first family� of the village was evident, muttered.

Lalu by distancing himself with Sadhu Yadav now and virtually putting his entire reputation at stake is out to get him defeated in Bettiah.

If he is battling with his in-laws on one hand and trying to wash his past sins of having encouraged them outlandishly, his bigger battle is with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his image. The �Vikas Purush�(man of development) image of Nitish, is pretty formidable, in comparison to the little development which took place in Lalu and Rabri�s time as Chief Ministers. Moreover, what bothers Lalu more is the enigmatic statements of Nitish about his post-poll options.

Despite his bravado and his repeated pledge to make Manmohan Singh the Prime Minister and his respect and loyalty to Sonia Gandhi, he very well knows that, it is all going to be a game of numbers. And Nitish, if he emerges with more seats than him, which looks more likely, he may strike a deal with Congress. And if that happens Lalu will find himself in an unprecedented situation politically. That of not wielding power neither in the State nor Centre—- a role which he has been unfamiliar with for the last nearly 20 years.

It is this possible fate which haunts Lalu Yadav as he campaigns tirelessly across the State, virtually trapped in a situation which he would have loved to have avoided.