By Girish Nikam
A few months ago when the left parties were virtually out of the media gaze, following Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh dumping them, a non-congress southern satrap was in constant touch with the left parties hoping to revive the third front. The conversations would go on, with little hope of being able to cobble up a viable front. The low morale among the left parties brought about by the way they had been outsmarted by Dr.Singh was obviously playing a role in the all pervading pessimism. That was then. But now there seems to be a new found optimism, as all the so-far fringe players gather around the left front and the BSP to create what they hope to be a viable non-congress and non-BJP alternative.

As the media is splashed with reports of conclaves and dinners and new tie-ups and a profusion of Prime Ministerial candidates emerging almost every other day from among this conglomeration, the reality has got submerged. The reality of how this non-congress and non-BJP alternative is a chimera which gets revived every election, only to disappear in the vaulting post-electoral ambitions of every component— small and big, and of course the contradictions.

Will it be different this time, post-election? It is the hope that it will be which drives the tired and the retired satraps to get a fresh dose of adrenalin and create this chimera, all over again. What is different about this formation revived in Dabspet near Tumkur in Karnataka, last week, from its earlier avatars? In its most successful avatar in 1989 and 1996, it must be reminded that without the large dose of outside support from BJP and Congress, the Governments of V.P.Singh, Chandrashekhar, H.D.Deve Gowda nor I.K.Gujral could even have been erected.

And only a seeming miracle can change that situation in 2009 too, if ever a third front government can become a reality. The front as it was created last week has parties all of which is not exactly in the pink of its political health. The left front parties, of which CPI (M) is the main constituent is itself in a situation where even its most optimistic supporter cannot ever think of it repeating the 2004 performance, when it had won 43 seats and the left front combine 59 seats.

Among its other partners in the front, the Telugu Desam and the TRS which has come together with the left front to form an alliance in Andhra Pradesh, also is not exactly oozing with confidence, despite the combination giving a solid look on paper— much like our Indian cricket team of the nineties with its awesome batting line up but which repeatedly used to fail to live upto its reputation.

The dream of Janata Dal(S) to re-emerge on its own in the Karnataka scene, also has limited scope, as it continues to be a party with real presence in only four and half districts in south Karnataka.

That leaves the two volatile women leaders and their parties, BSP and the AIADMK. Though both have made the right noises, they also have sent confusing signals, as is their wont, by not attending the Tumkur rally, and later the BSP supremo announcing that she will not accommodate any of the third front allies in any state and will go on her own. Though these kinds of contradictions are not new to Indian politics, and it is in fact happening even among the UPA and NDA partners, Mayawati�s single point programme of becoming the Prime Minister is something other parties can take only with a huge pinch of salt. Jayalalithaa on the other hand is someone who can swing any way, much in tune with the Tamil Nadu parties, and therefore her post-election reliance is always under doubt.

Now coming to the statistics itself. If we take all the states where these parties are going to be relevant electorally, UP, West Bengal, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Haryana, the total number of seats works out to 262 seats. For the third front to emerge as the alternative, it has to win atleast 150 seats out of this, and yet the front would still be short by 122 seats to cross the halfway mark. Even if we assume that in the post election scenario both the Biju Janata Dal which has abandoned the NDA and the Janata Dal(U), which can abandon it post elections, come to join the front, with about 15 and 20 seats respectively( most optimistic estimate), there would still be a shortfall of 87 seats. It is then that the third front leaders feel, they can start dipping into the UPA kitty. Which means luring the NCP and National Conference? But it is still not going to make numbers as the two is not large enough to fill the gap.

Beyond this the contradictions will start showing. Why? Because if Samajawadi Party is sought to be brought into the picture, the BSP will move out. Similarly if the DMK is wooed, Jayalalithaa walks out. And if Lalu Yadav�s RJD is eyed, the Janata Dal(U) will not play ball. And let us assume that the BJP and its allies like Shiv Sena and Akali Dal offers support, then the left front, NCP and Janata Dal(S) and TDP also possibly, will protest vehemently and be out of the picture.

As far as the Congress is concerned, it is unlikely to have any viable reason to support such a front, in which almost all the parties are its rivals in the States.

Yet, the third front bandwagon moves on basking in its own chimera and with a large dose of exposure from a media which revels in creating its own chimeras, unmindful of the staring reality. But it certainly adds colour and of course confusion to the electoral scene.