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May 13th, 2009 
Girish Nikam Election Trail-Tamil nadu
By Girish Nikam
As the fifth and final phase of polling concludes today, the big question on the minds of everyone is what is going to be the result. The exit polls on various news channels will give some understanding of what we expect. Meanwhile, here is my own projection of the results, where the Congress plus its partners seem to be pretty much ahead of the NDA. Please have a look at the table below.
| States | Seats | Cong | + | BJP | + | Left | *Third Front | Fourth Front | Others | |
| AP | 42 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 2 | ||||
| Assam | 14 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Arunachal | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| Bihar | 40 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 10 | ||||
| Goa | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Gujarat | 26 | 10 | 16 | |||||||
| Haryana | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||||||
| HP | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| J&K | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Karnataka | 28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | ||||||
| Kerala | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | ||||||
| MP | 29 | 7 | 22 | |||||||
| Maharashtra | 48 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 9 | |||||
| Manipur | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Meghalaya | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Mizoram | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Nagaland | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Orissa | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | |||||
| Punjab | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | ||||||
| Rajasthan | 25 | 15 | 10 | |||||||
| Sikkim | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Tamil Nadu | 39 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 22 | |||||
| Tripura | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| UP | 80 | 14 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 22 | |||
| WB | 42 | 6 | 10 | 26 | ||||||
| Chattisgarh | 11 | 4 | 7 | |||||||
| Jharkhand | 14 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | |||||
| Uttarakhand | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| A&N | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Chandigarh | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Dadar &NH | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Daman and Diu | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Delhi | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
| Lakshadweep | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Pondicherry | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 543 | 173 | 42 | 131 | 35 | 43 | 78 | 35 | 6 |
- Cong. + includes, NCP, DMK, VCK, MIM, NC, Trinamul Congress, JMM
- BJP + includes, JD(U), Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, AGP, Lok Dal
- Third Front includes BSP, Telugu Desam, TRS, JD(S), BJD, AIADMK, PMK, and MDMK
- Fourth Front includes SP, RJD, LJSP and Praja Rajyam
Posted in
[...] Columnist Girish Nikam who claims he accurately predicted 145 for the Congress in 2004, says the party will get 173 this [...]
Dot on… Fully in agreement. Now to see the results on 16th.
I do not disagree.
Girish,
Your projection for my state is challenged !
Girish-
Your projection is very similar to my own.
I was giving BJPless than what you gave it.
I put it nearer 115 as I think they’ll come down in Gujarat. I also doubt they’ll get 15 in UP.That is what
they say themselves,but in UP they dont have enough social support besides Brahmins and Banias,who
are divided between BJPand Congress. BJP may get someJat backing in west UP. But Idoubt they’ll hit 15.
As for Congress, they could be less than what you gave them in Karnatakabut a few more inKerala.
On the whole, they are likely to near the 200 zone if they can inch up to 180.
Best
Anand Sahay
PS:Unlike you, I havent travelled anywhere for this election,and have come to my understanding basing
myself purely on the political environment in each state.I reached my conclusion after about the third round of voting.Therefore, I may be off the mark here and there.
In 2004,I hadnt put a number on the Congress but had written in a HT column that the NDA wasnt returning.
That was soclear.Wonder why everyone missed it.
I think you are bang on target as always.I think you are absolutely right
Quite similar to my projections too. Except that you may have given the Left about 8 seats too many. And the NDA tally may be 10-15 seats more than what you are granting. Enjoyed reading your perceptive election reports from the ground.
tooo much 4 congress in up. 14 is a big figure
You must be dreaming if you give Congress 7 in Bihar, it wont win more than two, if it wins any at all
In Karnataka, BJP will win minimum 17
In UP, BJP allies should touch 25
In Maharashtra, Congress alone will reach its Nadir while NCP might just improve its tally
Girish,
Good work ….. methodical and anlytical.
Well, I put UPA around 195…..
I just hope you are right.
Tumhare Moohn main Ghee Shakkar. I still think that it will be closer to 160. They will lose a few more in Andhra and definitely not get more than 2 in Chattisgarh (including Bilapsur). UP, they will reach double digits, but barely so and Bihar 4 is perhaps a more optimistic estimate. But then you covered Bihar on the ground so you will have a more realistic picture there.
Cheers,
Biraj
Cheers. I do hope you prove right once again!!!
This is what an individual reporter’s hard work and understanding can do.
When election began, thanks to EC ban on Exit polls and surveys,
the reports were out in the field. I celebrated this in my column.
Zipping it to you.
Best wishes
Mahendra
Girish,
I agree with your tally. I am more and more inclined for these numbers. Where ever I travelled I got the sense that Cong will get the benefit of loan waiver, NREGS etc because these are the direct benefits to rural population. The numbers are really large. 30 million beneficiaries of loan waiver without any bureaucratic hurdles. Similar numbers are in the job scheme. These are families not individuals. So calculate the total numbers and see the possible % of converting those numbers to voters. These are really large numbers. Many of them are extra votes not available to Cong earlier. Rural economy is not in bed shape. Lot of agricultural laborers are buying mobile phones. Fifteen million phones added in March and large % is from rural areas.
So good luck for your tally.
Hari
NYT
Dear Girish
Even as I keep switching channels and listen to the predictions, I still seem to like your table. Good work. Let’s see by Saturday night.
All the best.
cheers
john
Would wait for another 72 hours before Hallelujah!
Atul Kumar Tiwari
I just hope you are right.
Regards,
Bandukwala
Hi sir, I went throug ur projection. What I wanted to says is keep ur finger crossed so that your projection will not turn a wrong one. What I think is difference between congress & Bjp will not that of more than 10 seats.
let see what happen on 16 may. hope you will right again.
your predicton always perfect. i will call you on saturday
i read all yor columns.TN and BIHAR stories quite interesting
I WISH YOU GOOD LUCK
NACHIKETH
by far the best estimate.. espicially i have not come across anyone predicting a BJP win in Anadamans. though far from the final tally you certainly had given more to the UPA than others were willing to. TN stories made good reading.
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sir,
namaste,
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Mrityunjay h. trivedi,Rajasthan patrika,Surat
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