Never before in post-independent India has such an electoral atmosphere prevailed, as it does now in the two southern States of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Two octogenarians, on the wrong side of their ninth decade, after completing five years in office as Chief Ministers, are fighting tooth and nail to retain power for their respective alliances.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.Karunanidhi and Kerala Chief Minister V.S.Achuthanandan, almost of the same age, 87, will create a record if they both manage to come back to power. And it would be the biggest irony, if it happens, when the world talks about India’s youth and its demographic dividend!

Will they be able to pull off their last victory as their long and eventful careers reaches its end, is the question being asked, and the answer to which is a month away, as the voters in their respective States queue before the polling stations, as this column is being written.

A few months back, when preparations were on for the elections to these two states, political pundits were almost sure that this round of polls would bring about change in Governments in both States. The 2G scam and the ageing Karunanidhi as well as the family rule of the Chief Minister’s family, apart from anti-incumbency were seen as reasons enough to dislodge the DMK regime.

इस लेख को हिंदी में पढ़ने के लिए यहाँ क्लिक करें. (साभार- राजस्थान पत्रिका)

Similarly in Kerala, known for the turnstile electoral outcomes in the last three decades or more, the Left Democratic Front(LDF) was seen as staring at a sure defeat and the return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF), was seen as a certainty. The number of scams and controversies, the hopelessly divided CPI(M) leadership and the reluctance of the Marxists central leadership to give ticket for another term to VS, also contributed to the prophecies of doom, for the LDF.

However, as the polling comes to an end, and an analysis of the campaign and the strategies adopted by the parties in the two States and the issues which became prominent during this period, does not give even an experienced observer to be so sure anymore about the outcome in both States.

That the two octogenarians have managed to come back into the fray despite all odds, is what the story of this elections has been so far.

Oddly, one of the factors which is going in favour of Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu, seem to be his age factor! A strange kind of sympathy has been discerned among the sections of poor voters especially, for the aged patriarch on a wheel chair. “It’s his last foray into electoral politics, and how can we let him down”, kind of emotions seem to be swaying many.
A fair assessment of the ground realities in Tamil Nadu, indicates that both the DMK and AIADMK fronts are in a close fight, the like of which has probably never ever been witnessed in Tamil Nadu. DMK front of course, has the advantage of its famed well organized and controlled poll machinery, while the AIADMK has found itself severely challenged on this front. The internal bickerings within AIADMK as well as the ego clash between its chief, Jayalalitha and her main ally, DMDK’s Vijayakanth, leading to them not sharing a platform even once during the entire campaign has added to the problems.
On the other hand, Jayalalitha’s advantage is the huge discontent among the urban voters towards the DMK and its family rule, with the 2G scam, adding to their ire. The yearning for change is palpable in urban areas and Jayalalitha has cashed in on it. She has also gone out of her way to cultivate the Christians, Muslims and the Nadars as well as a section of SC voters, who have traditionally been anti-AIADMK.

DMK’s base, among the rural voters, who have been well taken care off in the last five years, by the freebies offered as well as any number of welfare schemes which have also been implemented efficiently is intact. There is however a lot of concern about the Congress’ performance, despite it having managed to extract maximum number of seats from the DMK. A section of pro-tamil groups, have systematically been campaigning against the Congress, though not against DMK, which may hurt the party’s chances in atleast two dozen constituencies. Moreover, the lack of cohesiveness displayed by the multiple groups within the party in the State, has not helped either. How far the DMK cadre will be able to fill these gaps, is the moot point.

For Jayalalitha, who had virtually neglected her party, after the 2006 defeat, for most part of last five years, it is a do or die battle. Not known to take defeats in her stride, she will find it very difficult to retain her hold over the party, if she does not make it back to power. Her best bet seem to be the people’s ire against the Karunanidhi’s family rule, which she has not lost an opportunity to drill it into the voters’ ears.

The Tamil Nadu outcome could therefore turn out to be a photo finish.

Surprisingly, in Kerala too, VS has managed to recover a great deal of ground, almost single-handedly, giving the UDF a run for its money. His image of that of a warrior against corruption (he even offered to enquire against his own son), and his pitched battles with people within his own front, seen as corrupt, has pitchforked him to the frontline. In fact, his image is so high among his own front, that all the LDF candidates used only his pictures in their posters, and completely ignored other Marxist leaders, including, VS’s arch rival, Pinarayi Vijayan.

The Congress-led UDF, which was almost basking in their anticipated return to power a few months back, has found itself in some sort of trouble, with some of its leaders being caught in old controversies, which is not helping them. The leadership crisis, of who would be the next Chief Minister of UDF, has also added to the voters’ skepticism.

VS, who at 87, is much more sprightly than many of the younger leaders on both sides, unlike Karunanidhi, is not depending on any sympathy factor, connected to his age. It is his charisma which is his best ally. And this has ensured that the Kerala outcome will be as interesting, if not more, than Tamil Nadu to watch. Will the two octogenarians create a new history?