The politics of Tamil Nadu for a long time had been the story of the bitter rivalry between the two stalwarts of the Tamil film industry, friends turned foes, M.Karunanidhi and MG Ramachandran (MGR). Ever since MGR in the seventies walked out of the DMK, and decided to form his own political party, the politics of Tamil Nadu became a bi-polar polity. After having been a faithful follower of the founder of DMK, C.Annadurai and later his friend, and script writer Karunanidhi, MGR who till then had kept himself out of electoral politics, had successfully managed to create a huge political force. It was then carried forward briefly by his late wife, and then by his friend, co-star and prot�g�, Jayalalithaa.

The politics till the last decade of the 20th century in the State was therefore more about being pro-MGR or pro-Karunanidhi. Caste did neither matter nor religion, both had support within all religions and caste and the supporters were equally passionate about their leaders.

Then came the emergence of a party, Pattali Makkal Katchi(PMK), lead by Dr.P.Ramadoss,(father of former Union Health Minister Dr.Anbumani Ramadoss) bringing in for the first time the element of caste politics in the State�s political horizon. Professing to propound the cause of the backward caste Vanniyars, a land owning and largely agricultural class, Ramadoss a vanniyar himself, started to attract faithful followers. And ever since he has become a small but a key factor in the alliance politics of the State.

The Vanniyar belt, which starts from the southern outskirts of Chennai, and runs through Sriperumbudur, made famous on rather infamous by the brutal killing of Rajiv Gandhi on this soil, Kancheepuram, the temple town and through Arakkonam, Vellore right upto Salem, this belt consists of about a dozen of the 39 seats in the State.

Travelling through this almost 400 kms of swanky highways and highly industrialized belt( what a stark difference from the recent Bihar experience), gives one a glimpse of how important Vanniyar politics is to both the DMK and the AIADMK. The Vanniyars, along with Thevars in the Cauvery belt of central and eastern Tamil Nadu skirting the coast, are the two dominant communities with a population of about 8 to 10 percent each.

These two communities even today cannot be claimed by any of the parties, DMK, AIADMK or even Congress, as being their supporters totally.

Even the Vanniyars, whom Dr.Ramadoss represents, are not a captive vote bank of his, say like Mayawati�s hold over her community. But what makes him important is that he just has that crucial edge over the community, while the remaining are divided among the DMK and even AIADMK to some extent. Incidentally, the infamous forest brigand, Veerappan belonged to this community.

The PMK�s seats whether in the Assembly or Lok Sabha comes from this belt. What is being watched keenly is whether Ramadoss who has now hitched on his bandwagon with the AIADMK-led front, after having enjoyed the fruits of power being part of the DMK combine in the last five years, will be able to repeat the magic of 2004. Known for his clever strategizing of always trying to hitch on to the larger alliance, he has been somersaulting between the DMK and AIADMK. In 1999, he was part of the DMK-BJP alliance, which brought him 5 out of the 7 lok Sabha seats he contested. However in 2001 Assembly elections, he shifted loyalty to AIADMK-led front, only to return to the DMK fold in 2004 lok Sabha elections, winning all the five seats the PMK contested. However he stuck to DMK-led alliance in the 2006 Assembly polls, but has again somersaulted now into the AIADMK camp, willingly or unwillingly, is another matter.

On paper, his choice of the allies this time around should have been formidable, what with AIADMK-MDMK-CPI-CPM having come together. But what is creating problems for the PMK, is not just the disgust among a section of the Vanniyars about his frequent shifting of loyalties, but also a more important factor, the dalit vote. The Vanniyars are in constant conflict with the dalits of this region, known as the Adi dravidars or more familiarly as the parayas, who form a dominant over 20 percent of the population.

The decision of DMK supremo, Karunanidhi to rope in the militant, pro-Sri Lankan tamils and sometimes even LTTE supporter, Thol Thirumavalavan�s Viduthalai Chiruthegal Katchi (Liberation Panthers Party) who represents the parayas mainly found in the Vanniyar belt has become a major irritant for the PMK. The clever decision to offer two seats to VCK, by Karunanidhi is likely to consolidate to a great extent its vote base towards DMK-led front. More importantly, the problem for the PMK is though he is part of a larger alliance on paper, the left parties as well as MDMK virtually are non-existent in the vanniyar belt.

This is the reason why in all the 13 seats in this belt, contests have become sharper and keener with both fronts hoping that they will outbeat the other. In fact it is one of the reasons why the Tamil eelam issue has become prominent in this election, and both Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa are trying to outsmart each other with outrageous statements about what they would do with the Sri Lankan issue if they were voted. The VCK factor has forced Karunanidhi to be seen as being sympathetic to the Sri Lankan Tamil cause, at one stage even showing softness towards the LTTE chief Prabhakaran. Jayalalithaa has matched it with the rather far-fetched claim that she would force the Central government, if she is part of it, to do a Bangla desh on Sri Lanka.

Interestingly, except in parts of the urban areas in this belt, these high pitched rhetorics and claims don�t reasonate as much as they do on the media. �It�s a waste, we are not interested in it�, is the response of a construction worker, in Kancheepuram, to the question how much do they think about the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. Incidentally a DMK supporter, he and his farmer friend, who is a vanniyar from a village 15 kms. from the temple town, refuse to get carried away by these rhetorics.

However in the towns like Vellore and even in Kancheepuram, it does find reasonance among a section, and no wonder the DMK and AIADMK leaders are not willing to take a chance and are queering the pitch.

There is another factor which has brought about uncertainty to the outcome in this belt, as in other belts in the State, as we will see later. The Vijaykant Factor. This DMDK chief, and a phenomenon in his own right as a film star, who is contesting alone, can upset the calculations of both the fronts, as he goes about mopping up the votes of the poor and dalits, as well as those who have strong anti-DMK as well as anti-AIADMK feelings.