Why has the Tamil Nadu election scene got muddled up, and why is there this general feeling that there would be no sweep in favour of either of the two combines, led by DMK and AIADMK. It is not that there are no hopefuls who still predict, on both sides, that they would sweep, like the State has been used to. But they are the hard core supporters who are unwilling to even think of anything else.

The fact however is that after having travelled through almost half of the 39 constituencies, in the last 72 hours, in the two of the four major belts, the vanniyar and the Kongu belts, one can almost bet that there is no sweep scenario here, in anyone�s favour. The reason for that is not too far to seek.

One is the Vijaykant factor. This stocky, dark complexioned Tamil phenomenon in his own right, has changed the equations in Tamil Nadu, and it was evident in his first electoral venture in the 2006 elections. Vijayaraj Azhagarswami, in real life, 56 year old Vijaykant (his screen name), who launched his party, : Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), as late as 2005, made his electoral debut in the legislative Assembly elections in 2006. Known as the �black MGR�, for his complexion as opposed to a very fair skinned MGR, Vijaykant films were huge successes in the 1990s, as he managed to evoke the memory of the legendary MGR, by playing the good guy, who was fighting in favour of the poor and against the evil forces.

That image has stood him in good stead in his political career, as he managed a very impressive over 8 percent votes, in the 2006 elections. Though he won only one of all the 236 seats he contested, which was his own from Virudhachalam constituency, which incidentally was considered a vanniyar stronghold. He had however announced his arrival on the stage of Tamil Nadu politics with a bang. Ever since he has been a nightmare for the other parties, as he professes to be the alternative for both the DMK and AIADMK.

His pro-poor image and his conscious attempt to fashion himself after MGR, has in fact drawn away the relatively younger generation of the MGR fans towards him. In fact even middle aged ladies, one such in the Namakkal constituency, a tea vendor, are thinking of changing their loyalties. �Why not give him a chance also, we have seen others, and he is a good man�, Selvi who has been a hardcore AIADMK supporter so far remarked with a wide smile.

The older generation of MGR followers is hard to change, and this was evident, when Murugan, an agricultural labourer, near Thiruppur, refused to be carried away by the DMDK talk. �We were with MGR and we will always be with his party. Amma is the true follower of MGR�, asserted 64 year old Murugan.

These divided loyalties apart, fact is Vijaykant has become a factor in atleast 15 constituencies in the State, if not more, where he will be weaning away the votes of both the DMK and AIADMK. However it is the AIADMK he will hurt more, as it is the scheduled castes and the poorer among the other castes, which have been the backbone of the AIADMK that he has been attracting. Both in the Vanniyar belt, and in the Kongu belt, to a lesser extent, his presence is a worry for both parties, more so the AIADMK.

If the Vijaykant factor has already proved its ability to wean away votes and avert a sweep for either combine, even in the 2006 assembly elections, there is another new force which has emerged in the Kongu belt, which is causing ripples.

The Kongu belt, with its heart in Coimbatore, consists of two powerful communities, the Naidus and the Vellala Gounders. Both these communities have dominated the industry and commerce as well as educational field in this belt for decades. However the Gounders have always felt aggrieved by the fact despite their economic might, the political power has been dominated by the Naidus. Incidentally, Vijaykant is also a Naidu. It is this feeling of lack of political empowerment, which has lead to the creation of a new caste-based party, the Kongu Nadu Munnetra Peravai(KNMP).

If PMK started this trend and �spoiled� the polity of the State by creating a caste based party of the Vanniyars, the KGNP seem to have taken a leaf out of the book of PMK. Promptly, the KGNP has put up candidates in the eleven constituencies, which constitute the Kongu belt, in western Tamil Nadu, abetting South Karnataka and Kerala.

The party headed by �Best� Ramaswamy, �Best� coming from his �Best� group of companies based in Thiruppur, the knitted textile industry capital of the South, is giving nightmares, guess what, again to the AIADMK. The Gounders, who have been traditionally largely AIADMK supporters, are now being prodded into voting for their caste party, if they want to see their community have the same kind of clout as the Vanniyars. The PMK�s success in the last decade or so, of winning minimum number of seats and having maximum power both in Chennai and New Delhi, is too tempting a proposition for the Gounders to ignore.

However, it is not that all the Gounders are flocking blindly to the party. �We have to think of our caste, after all it�s a question of our own blood�, says Chinnaswamy, a small farmer and a hardcore MGR supporter, from Peramanallur, about 15 kms. from Thiruppur, but adds, �how can I give up MGR�. A provision shop owner in the same town, a fellow gounder, however has almost made up his mind to move to KNMP from AIADMK. So how far the KNMP leaders are able to evoke caste loyalties, will decide how much it will affect the outcome.