But the octogenarian�s indifferent health and his repeated visits and stays in the hospital has however not been a reason good enough for his bete noire and bitter rival, �Tantrum Thalaivi�, J. Jayalalithaa to hold back any punches. Unlike in any other State in this country the two bitter rivals fight it out not just on the streets, but through their own or party owned TV channels, which ad nauseam keeps repeating the charges being made by each other against each other.

Cutting through all this maze and as usual the media obsession about sensational issues, is quite an Herculean effort to put a finger on what is going to be the outcome of the elections for the 40 seats which includes one from Pondicherry. In this last 24 hours being in the sultry capital of the State, what one could gather is that this election may not be like any one has witnessed in all these years.

The voters of the State have always swung more or less one way, be it the AIADMK combine or the DMK combine all these years. Be it the electoral arithmetic or the mood, which keeps swinging every five years, the State is known to deliver one way. But this election many keen observers admit will see a change in that pattern. The voters are likely to swing both ways! Predicting in what proportion and how divided the mandate is going to be, is the challenge which very few are willing to undertake, and certainly it is too early for this column also to venture into. Maybe as one hits the road for the next few days the haze may get cleared to some extent.

While the ground situation itself is worth getting to know first hand, what is interesting already is the almost Machiavellian manipulations indulged in working out the alliances. Unlike in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections or even in 2006 Assembly elections, which saw the return of the Karunanidhi led-congress supported government, the equations have changed, and changed pretty dramatically.

For one all the allies of the DMK in the last two elections, except Congress have abandoned them, or that is what they would like to believe or more accurately is made to believe. There is no Vaiko�s MDMK, there is no Dr. Ramadoss�s PMK, there is not even the �natural allies� the left parties and most interestingly, even the DMDK, the outfit of the charismatic Vijaykant, known as �black MGR�.

All that the DMK is left with is the Congress and a small dalit outfit of the controversial pro-LTTE leader, Thol Thirumavalan.

On the other hand all the above mentioned forces, except DMDK, have rallied together into a grand alliance under the leadership of the AIDMK and its mercurial chief, Jayalalithaa. On paper, in any other election such a formidable alliance would have lead to the logical conclusion about another clean sweep in the offing.

But somehow no one is talking of a clean sweep this time round. Why? When the alliances were being worked out, by the DMK-Congress combine, two things were noticed–one the reluctance of the DMK supremo to have the PMK in the alliance and second, keeping Vijaykant, who was said to be keen to join the alliance with the Congress, out of it. There lies probably the tale behind what can be unusual elections this time with result probably swinging both ways.

The Machiavellian calculation of the ailing octogenarian was interesting. If PMK is allowed to be part of his alliance, Vijaykant will be left free and may even be forced to join hands with the AIADMK. One word about this charismatic Vijaykant, before proceedings further. Making his debut in the 2006 elections with his newly floated party, DMDK, he made every political party sit up and take notice of him by cornering 8.38 percent votes, though he won only one, his own of the 232 seats contested.

His pro-poor, �black MGR�(his complexion, MGR was very fair skinned) image, , had resulted in him cutting into the votes of both the anti-DMK and more importantly the hardcore MGR supporters who were losing their faith in Jayalalithaa. He also managed to stunt the PMK�s vanniyar caste base.

So Karunanidhi decided that the best way to meet the �formidable alliance� on paper of Jayalalithaa this time was to keep Vijaykant on his own, and repeat or better improve his 2006 performance. By keeping the PMK out, and forcing Ramadoss into the lap of AIADMK, he managed to do it. He also managed to convince the Congress, which was keen on tying up with Vijaykant about the need to leave him alone.

A smart move according to some, while some feel it is a calculated risk. So we now have the DMK combine hoping that their chief�s strategies will work, and Vijaykant will play the spoiler, by not only weaning away the AIADMK votes, but also stunt PMK, and taking away the pro-poor votes of other parties in the AIADMK combine.

Another interesting thing is by virtually pushing the left parties into the lap of the AIADMK, by siding on the nuclear deal with the Congress, BJP was left orphaned. A BJP-AIADMK alliance with Vijaykant added and Vaiko�s MDMK would have been too potent a weapon for DMK-Congress combine to tackle. It is quite amazing that Karunanidhi managed to do all this, without getting blamed for pushing away either the PMK or DMDK. In fact both are now forced to say that it was by their own choice.