Biman Bose, State Secretary, CPI(M), walking upto his office in the Alimuddin Street office.

Obviously this explanation does not explain the success fully, as the rivals always try to find simple explanations, avoiding any self -blame. Fact is none of the political parties through the last three decades and more have been able to match the organisational strength of the cadre-based party.

“Sanghatan inke bahut mazboot hai, upar se neeche tak”(Their organisation is very strong from bottom to top), points out Hasibul Ali Shaha, a native of Nandigram, who works in Calcutta now for a garment wholesaler.

It was this “strong organisation” and a disciplined one at that, which functioned not just during the elections, unlike most political party organisations in this country, which kept the red flag flying high, all these years.

It was this organisation, which yielded enormous influence over the Government machinery, consequently became the arbiter of Government contracts and jobs. It was also this organisation that successfully implemented the land reforms and brought in the agriculture revolution in the State. This politics of political patronage, in many places benign and welcomed by people, for years, kept the party apparatus well-oiled and flourishing from village level to the State headquarters.

The general feeling and to a great extent a reality too, was that if you are not aligned to the “party” chances of one landing up in Government jobs or getting contracts and enjoying the fruits of such patronage in various other areas, was remote. Of course, wherever the organisation had fair-minded people without vested interests, such patronage worked well, and even those who were not exactly party sympathisers also benefitted because of fair methods employed.

In the recent years however, the organisation started to rot, with vested interests developing, corruption sneaking in, and nepotism becoming the rule. “Sanghatan mein bhai batijawaad bahut ho gaya hai. Commiitte( district and village level) mein sirf unke bathije, unke bhai, unke saas, unke sasur ko jagah milta hai ab (Nepotism has grown in the Committees, only the leaders relatives find a place), Hasibul points out. The old dictum of the Communists, which abhorred nepotism, gave way some years back.

A senior comrade talking to this columnist at Alimuddin Street office of the State Committee, in Kolkata, admitted to it in so many words. “Last two years, we realized all these ills are afflicting our organisation. Corruption, though nothing comparable to what we hear now at the national level, has indeed crept in, and so has nepotism. But in the last two years we have tried very hard to combat and correct it”, the Comrade, a Central Committee member, who still believes that they will be able to surprise all doomsayers, remarked.

But obviously, the corrective measures initiated have not reached the people to convince them that things have changed. “Bahut suna hai hum bhi yeh sab, lekin hume kuch dikhayi nahin deta” (We have heard a lot about this, but we don’t see it here on the ground) , says Farad Ali Shaha and Saha Dev, in Nandigram. The perceptions are so strong that it is not easy to change them, so easily in such a short time.

It’s ironical, though not surprising, that the strong organisation which has been the greatest source of strength of the CPI(M) as well as envy of other political parties, has also become its greatest source of embarrassment and now the target of ire of the people.

The important question now, however is will all this change, if the promised “poribartan”(change) takes place, as it looks like? One has to understand that the politics of Bengal and the practitioners of it, belonging to even the non-left parties have more or less fashioned themselves on the CPI(M).

It is the success of the “strong Organisation” and the “politics of patronage” which they know is what has resulted in the enviously long rule of the CPI (M)-led Left front. And it is not a surprise that Mamata Banerjee, has tried to fashion her organisation also on the lines of the CPI(M). Though the Trinamul Congress cadre cannot be equated in terms of discipline and Simplicity of the Marxist cadre by and large, Mamata herself has made a fetish of her simple ways—her house a very modest one in a very modest locality, her dressing style or rather lack of it, her hawai chappals, insisting on living in a flat and not a bungalow in delhi, driving a modest car and so on.

It’s this simplicity, her rivals call it “drama”, which has endeared her to the common man, and is partly responsible for the “wave” in her favour now. However, what is evident talking to people expecting her to take over the Government, is that many of them are now eagerly waiting for their share in the spoils of power, which has eluded them for three and half decades.

It is this hunger, which is evident, that can prove to be the biggest Achilles heel for Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister. It can also potentially turn out to be one of the reasons for a very serious conflict, as the TMC cadres tries to vest the powers enjoyed by the entrenched left cadre for so long.

Another potential area of trouble is the promised industrialization. Mamata Banerjee in her zeal and following the success of her Singur and Nandigram agitations has been going around promising a different kind of strategy for industrialization. It has resulted in huge expectations, as lakhs of youth look forward to jobs in industries. And it is not going to be easy for her to find non-fertile land. And you can bet that the left parties are not going to make it any easy for her too.

Many in Singur have already discovered that the agitation and Tatas being forced to leave the place, has not benefitted anyone, and a section of those who supported Mamata, have turned against her now. So the burden of expectations she carries is so high, all this euphoria surrounding her now can dissipate sooner than one can imagine.

West Bengal is indeed on the threshold of a change, but will this change end the politics of patronage and the high-handedness of a cadre drunk with years of power? Not so sure at all.

For people in any other part of the world, save for dictated nations, controlled democracies or ones that pretend to be one, what has happened for the last 34 years in West Bengal has been a source of continuous amazement. For that matter even within India, politicians of all non-left parties, have enviously wondered how one Party/Front can retain power for so long.

Winning seven elections successively is the stuff dreams are made of for ordinary politicians and political parties. But for the Left Front in West Bengal it was a dream that they lived successfully for three and half decades even as election after election, the prophets of doom kept predicting, “this is it, this time they will lose”, only to eat humble pie(or is it dal-baat!) every time the results were out.

Unable to understand or explain the phenomena, the rival politicians and even a section of the media, attributed it to “scientific rigging” and any other reason which they could muster. What one wonders however, is if it was only “scientific rigging” which kept the left in power, why other political parties could not master that art, for all of three decades? Was it so “scientific”, that no one could decode the method? And more importantly, why did this “scientific rigging” fail in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

Anyway, after a brief two-day, about 500 kms whirlwind tour of the parts of the State, one can now say safely say, the prophets of the left front doom, may finally be able to say, “we told you so”.
Even believers, sometimes admit that their gods also fail at times (Satya Sai Baba is the most recent example, he could not survive till he was 96 as he had professed). And for the non-believers in West Bengal, who have kept faith in the Left Front, the time has come for them admit that their “gods” are failing.

In recent years, we have not heard much about a “wave” during elections, anywhere. But one gets the feeling now after having been in West Bengal, that if ever there was a “wave-like” atmosphere it is what one sees now in the State. If this is not a wave, then ok, I am not a journalist! Even hard-boiled comrades as well as the novice admit it, though they contend that this is a “jhoota wave”, created by a partisan media and a lying Mamata Banerjee. If that is true, one can only be shocked at the naiveté of the people of the State.

The fact is that there is hardly a handful one spoke to, in Kolkatta and 100 kms north and south of Kolkatta, who said that the change will not happen. The catch phrase, “poribartan” which Mamata Banerjee has successfully turned into a chant across the State, is on the lips of both those who are in favour of it and those also opposed to it, curiously.

There is no left front candidate or leader who does not use the phrase, in his speeches and interviews, though he or she is trying to rubbish it. But for the ordinary people, it is a chant, filled with hope, and one suspects, more so a wish coming out of sheer fatigue of having seen the same Government and faces for three and half decades. It sure has taken one hell of a long time for fatigue to set in, among these people! Any other political party in any other State or country would give their right hand, if people can tolerate them for so long.

But remarkably, some of the comrades sitting in the narrow lanes of Alimuddin Street (where the office of the CPI(M) State committee is located) in their narrow and rather Spartan offices, still are hoping that they will be able to pull it off in the last minute. Knowing their patience, perseverance and doggedness, one is not surprised by their optimism in the face of what is surely the most adverse situation they have faced in an election, in the last three and half decades in the State.

They have reason to feel so, going by their track record and the amount of work they have put in during this time. If one just ignored the political rhetoric of their rivals and look at the State, the agricultural revolution brought in and the admirable land reforms they ushered, is there for all to see. No other State is so rich and lustily green in these months of the year, in any other part of the country. A drive across the State and a view from the air is enough to convince how well the agriculture sector is doing. But what has now become the bane, is the fragmentation of land, and the consequent demand for jobs outside the sector.

In fact, the success of the left front in all these years has become their biggest problem, as it has become difficult to find land for industrialization, because of the high fertility of the land, and the people’s emotional attachment to it. Singur and Nandigram are evidences to it.

A visit to both these places has left one convinced that any future Government will also face similar problems, when it tries to get land for industries. It will require extra-ordinary strategies to convince the people to let go off their land, and it is here that the Left Front failed in convincing people.

It seems it is too late now for the lamenting leftists to reverse the situation, as both Singur and more so Nandigram, which was and continues to be seen as an attempt to grab fertile land, is etched in the memory of the people. It is these two issues which brought Mamata Banerjee bouncing back from virtual oblivion, and it is her successful exploitation of the issue, which now sees her on the doorsteps of a historic change.

Is it going to be a change for the better? Curiously very few people say it with conviction that it is going to be for the better. They are hoping that it will be, and worst comes to worse, they say, we will always have the option of adopting the Kerala model. But change is certainly in the air.

Never before in post-independent India has such an electoral atmosphere prevailed, as it does now in the two southern States of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Two octogenarians, on the wrong side of their ninth decade, after completing five years in office as Chief Ministers, are fighting tooth and nail to retain power for their respective alliances.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.Karunanidhi and Kerala Chief Minister V.S.Achuthanandan, almost of the same age, 87, will create a record if they both manage to come back to power. And it would be the biggest irony, if it happens, when the world talks about India’s youth and its demographic dividend!

Will they be able to pull off their last victory as their long and eventful careers reaches its end, is the question being asked, and the answer to which is a month away, as the voters in their respective States queue before the polling stations, as this column is being written.

A few months back, when preparations were on for the elections to these two states, political pundits were almost sure that this round of polls would bring about change in Governments in both States. The 2G scam and the ageing Karunanidhi as well as the family rule of the Chief Minister’s family, apart from anti-incumbency were seen as reasons enough to dislodge the DMK regime.

इस लेख को हिंदी में पढ़ने के लिए यहाँ क्लिक करें. (साभार- राजस्थान पत्रिका)

Similarly in Kerala, known for the turnstile electoral outcomes in the last three decades or more, the Left Democratic Front(LDF) was seen as staring at a sure defeat and the return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF), was seen as a certainty. The number of scams and controversies, the hopelessly divided CPI(M) leadership and the reluctance of the Marxists central leadership to give ticket for another term to VS, also contributed to the prophecies of doom, for the LDF.

However, as the polling comes to an end, and an analysis of the campaign and the strategies adopted by the parties in the two States and the issues which became prominent during this period, does not give even an experienced observer to be so sure anymore about the outcome in both States.

That the two octogenarians have managed to come back into the fray despite all odds, is what the story of this elections has been so far.

Oddly, one of the factors which is going in favour of Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu, seem to be his age factor! A strange kind of sympathy has been discerned among the sections of poor voters especially, for the aged patriarch on a wheel chair. “It’s his last foray into electoral politics, and how can we let him down”, kind of emotions seem to be swaying many.
A fair assessment of the ground realities in Tamil Nadu, indicates that both the DMK and AIADMK fronts are in a close fight, the like of which has probably never ever been witnessed in Tamil Nadu. DMK front of course, has the advantage of its famed well organized and controlled poll machinery, while the AIADMK has found itself severely challenged on this front. The internal bickerings within AIADMK as well as the ego clash between its chief, Jayalalitha and her main ally, DMDK’s Vijayakanth, leading to them not sharing a platform even once during the entire campaign has added to the problems.
On the other hand, Jayalalitha’s advantage is the huge discontent among the urban voters towards the DMK and its family rule, with the 2G scam, adding to their ire. The yearning for change is palpable in urban areas and Jayalalitha has cashed in on it. She has also gone out of her way to cultivate the Christians, Muslims and the Nadars as well as a section of SC voters, who have traditionally been anti-AIADMK.

DMK’s base, among the rural voters, who have been well taken care off in the last five years, by the freebies offered as well as any number of welfare schemes which have also been implemented efficiently is intact. There is however a lot of concern about the Congress’ performance, despite it having managed to extract maximum number of seats from the DMK. A section of pro-tamil groups, have systematically been campaigning against the Congress, though not against DMK, which may hurt the party’s chances in atleast two dozen constituencies. Moreover, the lack of cohesiveness displayed by the multiple groups within the party in the State, has not helped either. How far the DMK cadre will be able to fill these gaps, is the moot point.

For Jayalalitha, who had virtually neglected her party, after the 2006 defeat, for most part of last five years, it is a do or die battle. Not known to take defeats in her stride, she will find it very difficult to retain her hold over the party, if she does not make it back to power. Her best bet seem to be the people’s ire against the Karunanidhi’s family rule, which she has not lost an opportunity to drill it into the voters’ ears.

The Tamil Nadu outcome could therefore turn out to be a photo finish.

Surprisingly, in Kerala too, VS has managed to recover a great deal of ground, almost single-handedly, giving the UDF a run for its money. His image of that of a warrior against corruption (he even offered to enquire against his own son), and his pitched battles with people within his own front, seen as corrupt, has pitchforked him to the frontline. In fact, his image is so high among his own front, that all the LDF candidates used only his pictures in their posters, and completely ignored other Marxist leaders, including, VS’s arch rival, Pinarayi Vijayan.

The Congress-led UDF, which was almost basking in their anticipated return to power a few months back, has found itself in some sort of trouble, with some of its leaders being caught in old controversies, which is not helping them. The leadership crisis, of who would be the next Chief Minister of UDF, has also added to the voters’ skepticism.

VS, who at 87, is much more sprightly than many of the younger leaders on both sides, unlike Karunanidhi, is not depending on any sympathy factor, connected to his age. It is his charisma which is his best ally. And this has ensured that the Kerala outcome will be as interesting, if not more, than Tamil Nadu to watch. Will the two octogenarians create a new history?