A Girish Nikam website Every report that concerns India

By Girish Nikam (गिरीश निकम)

"

--

Will the BJP be able to improve on its impressive 2004 performance in the second phase where polling has got over for the 66 seats? Around this question lies the answer to that fond hope of people as well as the BJP and Congress about a clear verdict this time around.
The 66 seats which went to poll today spread over different geographies from the plains in Bellary to the forests of Malnad to the coastal Mangalore, turned out to be a boon for the BJP. Unlike the first phase seats, where BJP was in the third place in 2004, here they had emerged ahead of both Congress and Janata Dal(S) with a record 33 seats. Congress was a poor second with just 19 seats and the JD(S) with only 12 seats.
Will BJP beat its own record this time? Whether it can or not, ultimately, it is essential that it does if it has to reach atleast the100 mark, which can ensure its government formation. Travelling through the region it is evident that the party has been quiet successful in creating “why not try BJP once” mood more than it was evident in the first phase seats.
The presence of its Chief Ministerial candidate, B.S.Yeddyurappa in the electoral fray in this region, from Shikaripur in Shimoga and its enormous clout in terms of money and muscle seen in this region has also helped. If the mood was the only factor BJP perhaps had no worry in equaling if not improving its 2004 performance. Because the general mood across the region is in favour of giving it a chance to run a government.
But it has to contend with the anti-incumbency as well as its own peak performance in some of the major districts in the last election.
For instance, in Dakshina Kannada district it had won 7 of the 9 seats, 6 of the 7 seats in Shimoga, 4 of the 5 seats in Udupi, 4 of the 6 seats in Uttara Kannada and 3 of the 6 seats in Chikamagalur. It is this statistics, which can be a worry to the BJP and also gives hopes for the Congress. Having almost bitten dust in four of the districts, Congress has legitimate hopes that it can only improve its 2004 performance.
However if the “try them once” mood prevails the BJP may just make up and even improve on its 2004 performance. This is because of the chances of it improving its tally in Bellary (3 out of 9 seats in 2004), Chitradurga (0 out of 7) and Raichur (1 out of 6). Another factor which gives hopes for both the Congress and BJP is the decline of the Janata Dal(S) in this region. Having won 12 seats last time, the JD(S) however is struggling to keep itself relevant in this region. The benefit of the decline of the JD(S) however has visibly gone to the BJP, as majority of the workers have shifted to it, rather than the Congress, which though has also marginally benefited.
While these are statistics that stare at the face, what is happening in the minds of the people is not so evident. Especially since money power dominates the scene.
What is worrying is the way in which the voters have started expecting money, and they make no bones about it. In many places, one came across voters from villages and some even in bigger towns, openly discussing their price. At Harapanahalli it was shocking to overhear a conversation between four men, who had come for the BJP rally. The discussion centred on how much they should demand per vote in their family. “Let them go to hell if they cant pay me Rs.2,500 for the five votes I Have in the family”, one man declared.
Two women claiming to be from a Sthree Shakti (Self Help Group of women) group walked into the hall of a leading politician in Bellary, even as one watched, and grinning sheepishly introduced themselves. The reason for the visit was obvious to the politician, who shooed them away, saying he doesn’t deal with money issues. “They not only come here and ask, they even call me on phone and say no one has come so far”!
This trend was visible in even Shimoga and Davanagere districts, and is said to be rampant in Raichur and Koppal too.
Though money has always been spent in elections, this time it has become a cash only affair, and almost every voter has now started expecting it. A group of people near Shikaripur unabashedly admitted that they take money from all parties and even demand it if not given. “After all whose money is it sir, it is our money they are spending. Why should we not demand”, they ask. But then whom will they vote for, if they take money from all parties? They chuckle gleefully and say. “that we will decide when we go to the booth”.
It is therefore no wonder that the candidates and their parties continue to be on tenterhooks even after spending huge amounts. “Spending money no way insures us a win”, a candidate who has admittedly spent several crores confides.
It was only in 2004 that this region witnessed influx of such huge money, after the mining lords and their goons, entered the electoral fray. Until then confined to donate money to political parties and lending their goons, these mine lords developed political ambition and all the political parties were too happy to give them tickets. Having made a killing in the late 90s and early years of this century, when suddenly the iron ore scrap which until then was a waste material, suddenly gained a market in China. The mountains of these scrap which were lying neglected across the Bellary district, were transported to the ports and shipped to China. The income generated from it, without any significant capital cost, ran into crores of rupees per day.
Flush with unimaginable funds, people like the Bellary Reddys (two of whom are contesting on BJP ticket now) who were sons of a police constable started controlling the politics of the district. So is the case of many other mining lords, though Reddys are considered the biggest and the richest in the region. Once they entered the electoral fray in 2004, these mine lords spent money recklessly, and the people who tasted it have now got habituated to it.
In fact the story of these elections, especially the second phase is that of how money power has dominated the campaign. How far the outcome will depend on it, is another story.