A Girish Nikam website Every report that concerns India

By Girish Nikam (गिरीश निकम)

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With just two more days to go for the campaigning to end for the third and final phase of polling for the Karnataka Assembly, the dominant thought in the mind after having travelled the length and breadth of the State is, has Congress tripped in capitalizing on its potential.
This thought has only grown as one has travelled from the districts in Southern Karnataka where the first phase of elections took place, into the third phase. It is interesting to note that it has also coincided with the increasing support one has witnessed towards the BJP as one progressed into the final phase. The other discernible feature is the progressive decline of the Janata Dal(S) through the three phases. The polling percentages have also increased from the first to the second phase.
Congress which started on a promising note in the southern Karnataka districts has been found to be fumbling through the next two phases. Still the best bet to emerge as largest party in the 89 seats in the first phase, it can not be said the same in the next two phases, where the BJP has been emerging strongly, and is all set to improve its already impressive tally.
Why has the Congress stumbled on the way? Would Congress have been better off by declaring a Chief Ministerial candidate? Could it have had a better coordination and a more cohesive campaign strategy? Could the leaders have worked more purposefully and in a more unified manner? All these and many more questions have already started cropping up in private conversations with the Congress leaders as well as close observers in various districts.
Why these questions have been raised at this time, almost in the manner of a post mortem, even before the final phase campaigning has ended would certainly be a valid question. But it has become inevitable as internal Congress calculations of its own performance do not look all that rosy. It is by now an admitted fact among the Congress leaders that it is nowhere near reaching those magical 113 seats, to form a single party government. And even the most optimistic of the observers both within and outside the party is not willing to give it any chance of it touching the three figure mark.
Having said this, how and why has Congress reached a stage where it is being doubted of them even emerging as the single largest party? When the messy 20 month old JD(S)-BJP Government and the aborted in one week, BJP-led Government with JD(S) ended its tryst with power, there was a feeling that Congress would be able to capitalize on the chaos the two parties had created for themselves.
Though the BJP had harped on the “betrayal” factor bringing them sympathy, the Congress with some deft strategy was expected to expose the two parties and their quarreling ways. The BJP attempt to create a halo around itself was an illusion, especially after it’s now Chief Minister-in-waiting, B.S.Yeddyurappa had rushed from Tumkur to take oath after having abused and charged the Janata Dal(S) of the most heinous behaviour during its 20 month at the helm. The hunger for power on the part of the BJP at-all-cost was an issue waiting to be exploited by its rivals, especially the Congress. It also had a ready made issue against the Janata Dal(S), which had betrayed it and joined hands with the BJP, after having proclaimed it secular credentials from the housetops.
But with barely 48 hours to go for the campaigning to end, Congress seems to have failed quite squarely in ramming home to the voters any of these points. On the other hand it has been left defending its Government at the Centre, even as the State leaders have worked at cross purposes. The most classic case of this is the way in which some leaders have supported the lifting of the ban on arrack imposed by the JD(S)-BJP alliance government, while the Congress manifesto has supported the ban. So we have this comical sight of some Congress leaders like Janardhan Poojary supporting the lifting of the ban, while others are hard put to deny it.
It has to be noted that Congress has an umbrella of leaders of all communities and caste across the State, with stature, which no other party can match. Be it S.M.Krishna( a vokkaliga), M.P.Prakash( lingayat), Siddaramaiah(a OBC), Dharam Singh( a rajput), Veerappa Moily( another minor OBC), Jaffer Sharief(Muslim), Oscar Fernandes and Margaret Alva(Christian), Mallikarjuna Kharge(SC) to name just a few. Their collective experience in Government as well as in legislature and parliament would make all other political parties look woefully short of experience as well as leaders of stature
Yet for Congress not to have capitalised on it, and presented themselves as the natural alternative to the mess created in those 20 months and a week, speaks volumes about the internal problems in the party and lack of cohesiveness and strategy.
Maybe it is also that the people after having seen all these experienced leaders all these years are in a mood to see something new.
However it is a fact that Congress’ woes started the day the first phase tickets were announced, and ever since they have not been able to recover really from it. In fact in every district one has been to, it is common to find some Congress leader or the other who is disgruntled about the ticket distribution and is not putting his heart and soul into the campaign.
At the highest level too, the top leaders are all having their own calculations about the position they would find themselves in post-results in case of a hung assembly. So one can find many a Chief Ministerial hopeful positioning himself for such an eventuality. No wonder despite the repeated pleas by Sonia Gandhi to the electorate to give a decisive mandate in Congress’ favour, the message has not really gone down. This is simply because the State leaders have failed to get their conviction across to the people.
The result has been that Congress has just not been able to create a wave or even an undercurrent in its favour, in most parts of the State, and is left only hoping to ride on the anti-incumbency factor against its rivals. Will that be enough for it to end up even as the single largest party? Doubtful.