A Girish Nikam website Every report that concerns India

By Girish Nikam (गिरीश निकम)

"

--
Can the Congress make a dramatic come back in the third and last phase of elections to the remaining 69 seats? Or will BJP be able to retain or even improve on its performance of 2004 in this region? These are the two major questions one faces with the last round of polling just some hours away. There are a few other questions which are also important. Like how much will the BSP be able to make a dent in the calculations of the other parties, as it is in this region that it has some seat winning potential?
The eight districts which goes to polls consists of the two major Hyderabad-Karnatak areas of Gulbarga and Bidar while the remaining six are in the Bombay-Karnatak region, including, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Dharwad, Haveri and Gadag. If one goes by the 2004 performance, BJP should feel extremely confident, as it had bagged 31 seats, while Congress was a poor second with just 17, while Janata Dal(S) had managed a meagre 4 seats, though Independents had succeeded in winning 9 seats.
How crucial this phase is for both the Congress and BJP cannot be underlined enough, as it can make or break the quest for power of either party. Moreover for the Congress the stakes are higher as three of its Chief Ministerial aspirants, Mallikarjuna Kharge, Dharam Singh and H.K.Patil are all in the fray, and facing probably the toughest test in their political careers.
For Singh trying to get elected for the ninth time in a row, and as his local drum beaters proclaim, “create a world record”, the going has probably never been tougher. For a person who just over a couple of years back had fulfilled his dream of becoming Chief Minister, the reactions he is evoking is rather bewildering. Imagine he is as much a victim of “betrayal” by the Janata Dal(S) father-son duo, as he found himself unceremoniously thrown out when H.D.Kumaraswamy walked over to the BJP and stuck an unholy alliance. Yet, he does not evoke any of the sentiments even in his own constituency, Jewargi, like B.S.Yeddyurappa does, even though the latter had thrown all norms to winds and clamoured for power.
On the other hand, Singh is being taunted and blocked from entering villages, thin, unenthusiastic crowds welcome him, and generally one can feel that the electorate is not as keen to create a world record as his followers do. Yet, his supporters say, he has the knack of turning things around at the last minute. If he indeed does, he would have virtually performed a miracle.
In Kharge’s case the problem is entirely different. Having won eight times in a row from neighbouring Gurmitkal, he has decided to change his constituency this time around as his constituency got de-reserved in the delimitation process. He has therefore moved to Chittapur, just 40 kms from Gulbarga. He has evoked a mixed response there, though not as much hostility as his friend and once soul mate, Dharam Singh does in his constituency. But it is no cake walk for him too, as a silent whisper campaign launched by his rivals(read BJP) aimed at the upper castes are creating huge problems for him. The upper castes, especially the lingayats are being warned that if he is elected, there would be a plethora of “atrocity against dalits” cases against them. Though Gurmitkal constituents have had not had such experiences, poor Kharge is left defending himself and giving assurances that such things will not happen. However one redeeming feature for him is the dream he has been able to sell to his constituents that he would replicate the impressive work he has done in his erstwhile constituency, in Chittapur too.
Meanwhile for his colleague nearly 350 kms away, H.K.Patil, who has had a long and distinguished career in the Legislative council, it is his first foray into direct elections. And that too in his renowned father, K.H.Patil’s fort of Gadag. This was a seat his cousin D.R.Patil has been holding for a few terms. These long family connections in the constituency in the normal course should have ensured him a good night’s sleep tonight, the night before polling. But it is not. The ghost of the notorious former BJP Minister from Bellary, Sriramulu, who was the district minister in-charge and has many good works to his credit, is looming large over here giving him nightmares.
And mind you all these three Congress bigwigs are being challenged not by some BJP hot shots, but absolute non entities, whose claim to fame is that they are their party candidates.
It is clear after having travelled through the region, that in this region no Congress leader is safe, as the “try us one once” plea of the BJP is finding as much response here as it was witnessed in the second phase seats. The Congress however is hoping that the anti-incumbency against the BJP candidates, and the presence of so many stalwarts in the region would help it to improve its tally substantially. In fact it is imperative that it does, if it ever hopes to be in a position to emerge as the single largest party.
All its hopes lie in the Belgaum district which has 18 seats, where Congress had won only 5 while BJP had won 8 seats. But will it really be able to double its tally? Going by the mood in the district, it is not an easy task.
Meanwhile, with the Janata Dal (U) which had won four seats in the region virtually wiped out, and its vote base shifted to BJP, and BSP on the rise, which was evident at Mayawati’s impressive meetings in the region, Congress is facing an uphill task to improve its tally substantially. The Janata Dal(S) meanwhile remains a marginal force, though there are seats in the region where due to the individual merit of the candidates it can spring some surprises. However, it is evident that BJP is poised to emerge strongly and is likely to even improve on its 2004 performance in the region.